Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-11-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73141 33454 5496 472 26 3 0 0
OW 16 1537 482 463 41 7 0 0
VODI 0 618 772 1158 303 37 0 0
ODI 0 123 362 1337 1704 224 2 0
CDI 0 236 197 745 2425 1295 71 38
VCDI 0 39 31 314 1629 12702 20612 24936
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69881 35320 6194 527 19 3 0 0
OW 18 1460 503 514 58 10 0 0
VODI 0 999 474 923 293 27 0 0
ODI 0 377 348 832 923 221 14 0
CDI 0 95 114 589 1944 1311 116 0
VCDI 0 245 118 373 1579 15023 21195 24408
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72455 34175 7567 1132 76 2 0 0
OW 16 246 341 846 98 14 0 0
VODI 0 89 125 1185 498 50 0 0
ODI 0 148 194 643 1139 216 9 0
CDI 0 37 17 270 1573 2138 110 10
VCDI 0 3 1 64 725 15492 20962 24382
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68702 36930 8333 694 38 0 0 0
OW 17 835 513 615 46 3 0 0
VODI 0 236 464 1156 242 25 0 0
ODI 0 212 155 984 752 136 1 0
CDI 0 47 76 645 1166 653 53 28
VCDI 0 13 1 185 1494 20704 24740 16154
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68702 36947 8382 784 43 0 0 0
OW 17 687 460 615 41 2 0 0
VODI 0 376 437 967 247 20 0 0
ODI 0 208 193 986 723 164 1 0
CDI 0 51 70 727 1126 747 51 23
VCDI 0 4 0 200 1558 20588 24742 16159

Date: 2016-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71765 37199 4545 545 61 5 0 0
OW 17 1210 563 489 48 2 0 0
VODI 0 691 744 947 225 15 0 0
ODI 0 101 186 993 624 73 0 0
CDI 0 82 166 679 1197 602 72 41
VCDI 0 10 21 360 1841 15454 21941 23534
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71761 37151 4553 561 63 5 0 0
OW 21 970 551 478 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 882 567 917 228 21 0 0
ODI 0 184 334 887 606 97 0 0
CDI 0 89 199 692 1157 710 56 36
VCDI 0 17 21 478 1902 15318 21957 23539

Date: 2016-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69197 38418 6561 954 99 7 0 0
OW 16 198 315 1049 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 107 107 1385 354 7 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 681 1832 77 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 88 1261 1673 59 27
VCDI 0 0 0 3 448 11408 24359 26318
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69194 37237 5492 770 110 7 0 0
OW 19 683 494 571 68 1 0 0
VODI 0 624 563 1123 459 27 3 0
ODI 0 158 256 721 880 158 11 0
CDI 0 6 99 497 1170 868 123 11
VCDI 0 18 80 478 1331 12111 24293 26334

Date: 2016-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68085 37261 6691 1411 92 0 0 0
OW 19 265 426 1155 66 0 0 0
VODI 0 138 106 1121 407 3 0 0
ODI 0 61 100 430 987 105 8 0
CDI 0 9 27 336 1660 1117 103 59
VCDI 0 0 0 32 487 10702 23891 29688
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68082 36525 5884 1051 86 0 0 0
OW 22 538 652 670 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 427 464 1066 350 28 0 0
ODI 0 150 158 642 761 234 6 0
CDI 0 63 53 592 956 718 132 19
VCDI 0 31 139 464 1485 10947 23864 29728

Date: 2016-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72446 30585 7185 1457 103 0 0 0
OW 23 282 447 1077 162 0 0 0
VODI 0 130 139 1066 639 23 0 0
ODI 0 47 34 421 978 199 2 3
CDI 0 0 54 376 982 1014 93 65
VCDI 0 0 0 34 669 11325 22650 32338
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72445 30246 6586 1058 91 0 0 0
OW 24 449 634 753 91 0 0 0
VODI 0 252 424 1203 396 19 0 0
ODI 0 80 107 666 723 118 0 4
CDI 0 16 58 381 928 642 58 91
VCDI 0 1 50 370 1304 11782 22687 32311


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