Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-11-10

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-11-14

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1180 357 218 6 0 0 0
OW 0 4 68 212 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 308 101 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 374 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 452 403 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 130 7154 12206 13624
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 564 210 152 7 0 0 0
OW 0 371 36 84 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 205 97 136 29 3 0 0
ODI 0 39 67 206 103 14 0 0
CDI 0 5 16 188 415 196 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 509 7364 12200 13624

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 23 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 115 87 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 280 430 2165
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 10 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 10 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 27 7 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 102 359 430 2165

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 6 10 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 3 108 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 0 220 66 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 298 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 295 682 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 1066 2424 4676
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2 3 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 6 62 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 4 204 66 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 0 102 273 103 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 235 380 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 89 1292 2424 4676

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2182 834 173 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 35 246 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 224 90 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 238 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 143 262 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 422 725 2
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2139 722 220 21 0 0 0
OW 0 33 97 79 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 48 199 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 136 161 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 142 132 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 115 526 725 2

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 89 27 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 74 289 94 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 925 4681 1032
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 4 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 47 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 49 65 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 63 254 105 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 916 4673 1032

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 14 0 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 58 51 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 44 593 3865 651
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 9 0 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 39 33 39 3
VCDI 0 0 0 3 68 611 3864 648

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3999 1284 79 0 0 0 0
OW 0 45 53 97 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 29 87 34 3 0 0
ODI 0 22 12 43 50 29 2 0
CDI 0 19 5 31 87 28 0 0
VCDI 0 14 1 44 87 118 3 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3661 976 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 246 221 52 0 1 0 0
VODI 0 100 102 109 38 5 0 0
ODI 0 46 46 84 35 26 2 0
CDI 0 38 33 61 62 25 0 0
VCDI 0 32 6 65 125 121 3 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3354 6754 1158 65 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3354 6721 1158 58 0 0 0 0
OW 0 28 0 7 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1026 6042 2285 167 14 5 0 0
OW 0 0 15 157 23 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 147 93 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 157 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 100 220 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 1161 6 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1026 6036 2269 174 15 2 0 0
OW 0 6 31 130 35 11 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 135 91 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 81 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 143 138 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 1227 8 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7980 4850 154 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7980 4850 154 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1644 463 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 61 141 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 365 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 117 571 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 547 343 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 167 1063 258 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 861 145 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 346 32 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 400 205 126 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 37 118 377 272 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 34 132 621 109 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 395 1301 259 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 853 6024 465 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 67 11 30 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 186 104 80 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 45 13 126 21 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 35 136 32 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 162 178 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 853 5757 408 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 135 46 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 114 12 21 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 40 6 40 1 5 0 0
CDI 0 38 8 13 37 18 0 0
VCDI 0 238 115 199 281 193 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12330 7190 634 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 4 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 5 17 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 7 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12330 7048 610 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 129 22 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 2 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 3 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 1 8 14 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 2 14 0 0 0 0


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