Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-11-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75183 20843 1551 264 37 20 0 0
OW 6 364 187 273 55 11 0 0
VODI 0 42 56 300 105 27 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 115 167 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 250 244 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 89 3409 4310 1086
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66708 25300 5181 363 40 2 0 0
OW 9 452 158 295 65 3 0 0
VODI 0 64 101 316 198 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 82 261 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 305 164 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 94 3856 3794 1223
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63927 23398 8948 455 19 0 0 0
OW 10 384 442 349 47 1 0 0
VODI 0 186 432 554 180 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 92 276 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 285 300 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 4808 3536 329
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73277 21420 1166 273 21 3 0 0
OW 17 805 100 189 29 3 0 0
VODI 0 358 462 439 138 3 0 0
ODI 0 33 123 376 238 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 77 325 113 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 304 4070 3899 808
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73277 21710 1195 296 15 2 0 0
OW 17 569 145 184 40 4 0 0
VODI 0 309 467 396 121 6 0 0
ODI 0 28 44 405 246 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 73 333 116 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 300 4062 3899 808

Date: 2016-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68162 23831 3487 440 28 3 0 0
OW 18 838 79 199 41 9 0 0
VODI 0 460 258 249 128 22 0 0
ODI 0 135 269 446 357 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 12 80 400 267 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 223 4762 2904 919
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68162 23843 3504 473 37 2 0 0
OW 18 777 104 196 45 10 0 0
VODI 0 518 294 313 117 36 0 0
ODI 0 122 180 344 238 55 0 0
CDI 0 4 23 88 516 278 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 224 4743 2899 919

Date: 2016-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65901 26625 4801 417 20 5 0 0
OW 15 8 107 430 34 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 590 146 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 138 617 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 484 572 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 52 4019 3449 589
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65898 25335 4360 356 22 2 0 0
OW 18 765 99 187 47 11 0 0
VODI 0 493 282 325 110 20 0 0
ODI 0 40 141 505 260 50 0 0
CDI 0 0 36 193 690 344 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 224 4236 3445 589

Date: 2016-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64417 26304 6055 569 41 0 0 0
OW 16 144 165 361 38 7 0 0
VODI 0 1 36 471 146 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 332 380 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 618 374 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 186 6520 1826 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64412 24656 5653 354 38 0 0 0
OW 21 1065 117 157 24 9 0 0
VODI 0 568 188 297 56 17 0 0
ODI 0 156 198 469 276 9 0 0
CDI 0 4 100 363 410 113 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 131 605 6808 1824 0

Date: 2016-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70145 23110 3678 287 49 0 0 0
OW 16 449 249 182 0 3 0 0
VODI 0 73 163 429 41 15 0 0
ODI 0 6 85 385 120 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 12 290 276 143 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 61 646 5142 2854 146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70113 21061 3459 227 49 0 0 0
OW 48 1056 142 56 1 4 0 0
VODI 0 821 165 120 14 21 0 0
ODI 0 521 228 281 29 19 0 0
CDI 0 159 124 487 81 70 0 0
VCDI 0 20 69 463 958 5234 2854 146


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