Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-11-03

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-11-07

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 457 439 119 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 149 236 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 35 269 56 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 51 215 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 248 490 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 90 4514 12586 16862
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 296 270 70 0 0 0 0
OW 0 144 120 90 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 171 226 12 2 0 0
ODI 0 1 51 167 67 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 14 116 290 155 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 44 247 4815 12591 16862

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 9 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 9 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 9 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 79 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 26 147 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 440 1365 1031
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 11 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 7 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 10 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 68 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 39 86 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 445 1365 1031

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 93 393 91 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 54 173 495 134 1 0 0
ODI 0 7 0 37 546 137 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 241 599 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1471 2272 3237
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 36 165 63 22 0 0 0
OW 0 74 230 230 42 13 0 0
VODI 0 44 171 229 160 49 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 66 302 178 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 337 205 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 1763 2271 3237

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2885 592 91 0 0 0 0
OW 0 67 115 174 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 52 384 40 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 384 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 151 554 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 112 6 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2948 622 105 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 115 174 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 22 376 76 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 227 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 268 369 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 297 6 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 275 105 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 277 144 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 500 889 590 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 4 325 469 28 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 222 745 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 376 1793 467
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 396 123 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 132 67 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 324 316 144 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 189 522 494 260 80 5 0
CDI 0 13 114 277 375 601 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 42 468 1783 467

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 40 942 4320
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 11 162
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 38 938 4169

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 202 3338 1115 67 11 3 0 0
OW 0 59 135 146 2 5 0 0
VODI 0 19 27 273 56 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 290 37 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 81 346 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 32 29 1 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 202 3188 920 52 12 5 0 0
OW 0 126 188 66 6 3 0 0
VODI 0 95 133 159 94 17 8 0
ODI 0 7 36 182 165 177 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 57 77 147 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 118 72 1 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1289 8216 1669 65 0 0 0 0
OW 0 60 12 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 2 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1289 8232 1672 65 0 0 0 0
OW 0 35 10 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 1 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 1 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 984 3804 4244 256 19 0 0 0
OW 0 0 2 207 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 113 132 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 223 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 179 167 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 1051 219 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 984 3804 4241 287 43 0 0 0
OW 0 0 5 174 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 102 136 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 145 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 168 131 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 1092 207 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6698 5534 753 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6698 5534 753 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1948 175 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 455 553 68 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 92 340 457 28 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 137 453 53 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 168 296 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 76 460 37 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2246 314 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 169 239 92 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 80 480 389 49 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 35 173 407 117 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 125 191 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 140 487 37 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1440 5360 614 50 0 0 0 0
OW 7 146 36 8 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 279 141 135 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 3 154 40 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 60 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 29 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1440 5282 582 19 0 0 0 0
OW 7 70 22 26 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 19 14 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 99 59 2 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 230 106 244 45 1 0 0
VCDI 0 94 6 59 108 30 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12527 7110 527 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 5 26 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12527 7106 527 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 0 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 10 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 21 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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