Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-11-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77582 18836 1636 251 41 0 0 0
OW 5 130 104 214 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 94 78 230 96 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 130 169 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 68 372 58 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 514 2844 4199 1408
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74960 20869 2054 134 39 2 0 0
OW 6 139 193 135 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 193 296 66 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 256 124 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 119 233 144 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 250 2300 3837 2649
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68207 27977 1954 214 29 21 0 0
OW 4 106 176 277 17 11 0 0
VODI 0 13 30 266 70 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 103 176 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 299 275 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 73 2537 5303 881
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74884 20545 2349 272 52 0 0 0
OW 6 348 168 286 48 3 0 0
VODI 0 29 37 266 114 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 117 171 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 292 212 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 113 4763 3591 357
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74884 20506 2347 307 60 0 0 0
OW 6 352 141 216 51 4 0 0
VODI 0 64 66 298 97 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 121 160 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 306 216 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 116 4758 3591 357

Date: 2016-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71249 23824 2317 315 47 11 0 0
OW 7 424 155 259 66 2 0 0
VODI 0 61 70 285 154 13 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 120 191 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 242 219 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 100 3688 3690 1493
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71248 23792 2333 353 70 12 0 0
OW 8 399 130 212 54 1 0 0
VODI 0 118 79 282 136 12 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 128 174 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 265 204 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 101 3708 3685 1493

Date: 2016-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62658 26479 7481 406 19 0 0 0
OW 9 487 516 408 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 102 241 359 182 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 381 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 318 272 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 4072 3895 688
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62658 26690 7536 399 43 0 0 0
OW 9 279 309 282 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 98 393 321 146 8 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 156 191 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 350 155 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 177 4194 3883 688

Date: 2016-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65514 25179 5320 308 23 4 0 0
OW 12 741 156 203 30 5 0 0
VODI 0 541 338 508 121 3 0 0
ODI 0 38 69 217 216 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 357 179 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 243 4294 4069 357
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65514 25619 5269 250 17 2 0 0
OW 12 451 224 189 56 8 0 0
VODI 0 389 326 433 86 5 0 0
ODI 0 40 64 270 127 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 121 333 153 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 371 4326 4065 357

Date: 2016-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72328 20710 2667 291 25 3 0 0
OW 16 824 102 196 28 7 0 0
VODI 0 303 365 401 123 11 0 0
ODI 0 13 193 482 367 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 86 360 162 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 237 4310 3026 1418
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72328 21188 2732 205 12 6 0 0
OW 16 309 282 233 40 10 0 0
VODI 0 319 197 569 117 3 0 0
ODI 0 34 116 274 305 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 150 210 188 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 456 4309 3026 1418


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