Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-11-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80659 35705 3359 553 41 0 0 0
OW 5 3377 585 567 161 11 0 0
VODI 0 2500 1307 1495 906 65 0 0
ODI 0 259 363 1137 1096 611 5 0
CDI 0 35 24 633 1453 1105 33 28
VCDI 0 0 0 113 1709 10852 20566 15730
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77940 36531 3824 282 39 2 0 0
OW 36 2775 917 490 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 3179 1407 1181 222 235 0 0
ODI 0 497 805 1828 843 423 0 0
CDI 0 29 71 1140 1545 786 17 17
VCDI 0 0 0 261 2187 9724 20055 17732
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69735 47616 4766 658 38 21 0 0
OW 10 2118 1581 1575 164 11 0 0
VODI 0 569 515 2504 860 45 0 0
ODI 0 27 12 766 1622 286 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 197 1610 1286 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 99 890 8201 19506 19716
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75393 38182 4702 542 52 0 0 0
OW 6 2290 906 1119 168 5 0 0
VODI 0 1347 1318 2673 1116 31 0 0
ODI 0 220 77 889 2091 310 4 0
CDI 0 4 0 129 1452 1711 82 1
VCDI 0 0 0 52 465 10170 21890 17651
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75393 38085 4738 696 61 0 0 0
OW 6 2278 770 973 276 8 0 0
VODI 0 1331 1383 2374 982 45 0 0
ODI 0 344 112 1174 1968 299 4 0
CDI 0 5 0 131 1597 1439 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 460 10436 21917 17652

Date: 2016-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72069 39192 4643 567 56 11 0 0
OW 7 1874 914 955 173 16 0 0
VODI 0 1429 897 1864 1317 139 0 0
ODI 0 524 265 1253 2207 354 0 0
CDI 0 44 10 179 1464 2109 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 467 9115 22148 20725
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72068 39124 4797 673 102 12 0 0
OW 8 1505 677 839 176 13 0 0
VODI 0 1661 880 1672 1225 145 0 0
ODI 0 535 347 1412 1785 311 0 0
CDI 0 238 28 227 1884 2091 69 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 512 9172 22126 20725

Date: 2016-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64300 39618 10234 674 31 3 0 0
OW 16 1173 1539 945 52 5 0 0
VODI 0 971 1664 2753 461 5 0 0
ODI 0 21 11 798 2699 285 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 1376 3348 51 15
VCDI 0 0 0 14 264 8522 19221 25917
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64300 39758 10190 693 79 5 0 0
OW 16 762 996 866 115 16 0 0
VODI 0 624 1316 1660 550 94 8 0
ODI 0 302 706 1163 1642 656 16 4
CDI 0 243 234 736 1724 1890 58 162
VCDI 0 94 6 119 773 9507 19199 25766

Date: 2016-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65515 38250 9442 542 24 4 0 0
OW 12 1263 671 516 50 5 0 0
VODI 0 856 1019 1481 723 19 0 0
ODI 0 356 778 1812 1223 192 9 2
CDI 0 130 157 951 2546 1542 99 63
VCDI 0 13 6 174 1186 13439 21797 20181
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65515 38453 9487 535 37 2 0 0
OW 12 933 711 603 82 12 0 0
VODI 0 703 893 1472 676 105 0 0
ODI 0 213 570 1408 1296 286 9 6
CDI 0 188 260 952 1914 1352 130 52
VCDI 0 378 152 506 1747 13444 21766 20188

Date: 2016-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73141 33454 5496 472 26 3 0 0
OW 16 1537 482 463 41 7 0 0
VODI 0 618 772 1158 303 37 0 0
ODI 0 123 362 1337 1704 224 2 0
CDI 0 236 197 745 2425 1295 71 38
VCDI 0 39 31 314 1629 12702 20612 24936
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73141 33808 5633 441 23 6 0 0
OW 16 797 612 635 104 15 0 0
VODI 0 691 552 1471 461 78 0 0
ODI 0 221 258 870 2008 347 15 0
CDI 0 146 41 583 1740 1545 162 102
VCDI 0 344 244 489 1792 12277 20508 24872


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