Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-10-27

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-10-31

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 953 383 65 0 0 0 0
OW 0 123 224 257 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 7 505 140 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 202 382 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 479 287 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 253 3808 11542 17252
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 524 236 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 71 85 82 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 189 63 146 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 294 164 207 58 1 0 0
CDI 0 8 66 404 319 64 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 199 874 4030 11544 17252

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 78 38 26 0 0 0 0
OW 0 76 55 12 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 13 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 54 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 123 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 104 400 888 1215
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 89 49 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 62 44 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 0 10 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 25 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 52 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 208 399 888 1215

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1 1879 441 156 0 0 0 0
OW 0 35 86 330 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 463 82 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 127 891 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 200 212 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 65 481 2146 2346
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1 921 145 139 2 0 0 0
OW 0 365 69 128 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 499 155 213 30 0 0 0
ODI 0 129 157 418 231 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 155 539 49 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 434 667 2146 2346

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 479 4355 281 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 194 127 111 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 104 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 437 3431 226 0 0 0 0 0
OW 42 583 3 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 445 89 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 90 85 143 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 71 3 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2514 261 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 622 341 396 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 146 138 391 152 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 71 167 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 101 197 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 34 1089 496 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 948 77 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 671 47 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1456 337 288 43 23 0 0
ODI 0 204 216 218 21 61 0 0
CDI 0 3 51 297 137 102 4 0
VCDI 0 0 12 83 262 1176 495 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 10 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 260 193 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 165 522 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 184 1878 2090 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 13 26 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 138 113 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 132 217 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 78 319 67 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 258 1920 2042 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 85 4644 264 43 0 0 0 0
OW 0 122 197 229 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 31 441 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 72 78 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 34 19 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 85 4576 260 119 0 0 0 0
OW 0 147 108 285 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 90 90 177 32 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 34 146 62 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 30 12 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6421 4617 200 38 0 0 0 0
OW 0 37 3 6 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 0 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6421 4657 203 44 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 0 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5490 3400 625 76 36 0 0 0
OW 0 0 27 157 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 135 61 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 115 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 99 152 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 74 774 375 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5490 3396 507 67 42 0 0 0
OW 0 4 93 81 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 44 126 57 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 91 97 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 87 99 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 104 814 375 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9543 3358 87 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9543 3358 87 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 366 3129 314 26 0 0 0 0
OW 0 186 284 171 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 34 484 47 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 120 96 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 69 32 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 199 72 81 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 366 2848 114 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 234 66 35 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 203 239 98 32 0 0 0
ODI 0 33 213 333 48 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 248 83 34 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 140 256 80 81 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2155 5208 532 70 1 0 0 0
OW 0 174 89 32 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 112 39 72 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 2 56 19 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2155 4811 398 41 0 0 0 0
OW 0 41 24 13 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 269 85 9 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 355 149 100 8 0 0 0
CDI 0 24 6 55 18 0 0 0
VCDI 0 2 0 16 4 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17340 2589 238 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 8 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 21 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17340 2589 238 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 10 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 17 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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