Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-10-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79131 17070 1890 440 1 0 0 0
OW 0 20 26 263 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 167 130 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 100 152 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 92 311 37 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 303 3412 4074 1448
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79360 17341 1162 380 4 0 0 0
OW 2 99 84 217 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 8 177 99 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 95 158 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 304 31 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 365 2425 4444 2229
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80434 16340 1302 317 19 0 0 0
OW 2 35 78 228 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 2 173 104 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 93 177 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 421 140 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 180 2402 3551 3005
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79568 16918 1561 259 33 0 0 0
OW 4 133 137 227 21 1 0 0
VODI 0 33 22 223 93 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 143 139 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 386 111 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 430 3191 3879 1513
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79568 16937 1566 274 37 0 0 0
OW 4 104 127 210 21 1 0 0
VODI 0 39 24 211 89 1 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 149 145 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 356 113 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 454 3178 3879 1513

Date: 2016-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75982 20167 1804 210 36 7 0 0
OW 6 105 190 155 25 1 0 0
VODI 0 19 145 357 79 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 187 133 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 93 312 71 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 414 2608 3537 2439
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75982 20191 1812 194 40 7 0 0
OW 6 75 158 149 21 1 0 0
VODI 0 25 159 314 70 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 216 150 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 124 283 55 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 435 2623 3538 2439

Date: 2016-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81014 15856 1271 138 36 0 0 0
OW 4 108 237 273 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 13 323 72 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 116 213 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 257 307 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 106 2000 4050 2644
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81012 15755 1059 120 42 0 0 0
OW 6 106 177 140 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 165 221 60 0 0 0
ODI 0 26 120 223 125 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 132 214 136 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 245 2158 4052 2644

Date: 2016-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72725 23492 1758 265 42 21 0 0
OW 5 228 191 265 33 12 0 0
VODI 0 18 23 268 81 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 128 154 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 346 199 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 104 4266 4148 256
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72723 23242 1652 183 41 26 0 0
OW 7 209 194 163 25 10 0 0
VODI 0 224 109 269 63 11 0 0
ODI 0 63 15 189 108 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 126 258 108 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 265 4347 4134 256

Date: 2016-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75183 20843 1551 264 37 20 0 0
OW 6 364 187 273 55 11 0 0
VODI 0 42 56 300 105 27 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 115 167 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 250 244 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 89 3409 4310 1086
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75180 20699 1498 220 34 24 0 0
OW 9 162 141 218 31 12 0 0
VODI 0 268 147 273 76 20 0 0
ODI 0 121 8 161 176 40 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 105 216 160 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 170 3506 4310 1086


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