Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-10-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82138 36643 6304 825 2 0 0 0
OW 8 1667 1129 889 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 802 1509 2670 864 148 0 0
ODI 0 37 314 1708 1570 965 6 0
CDI 0 0 5 321 1196 1593 388 5
VCDI 0 0 0 12 460 6766 24667 11383
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83224 32241 7189 615 4 0 0 0
OW 4 2478 944 754 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 1171 1364 1827 311 0 0 0
ODI 0 191 480 1796 1764 562 3 0
CDI 0 0 34 724 1797 1906 138 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 1003 7251 22449 14752
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85460 33454 3334 565 19 0 0 0
OW 15 2583 1435 811 130 0 0 0
VODI 2 1007 1436 2201 613 48 0 0
ODI 0 42 26 1264 1603 250 9 0
CDI 0 3 1 183 1834 1747 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 468 6710 20326 19439
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81926 34865 3797 489 36 0 0 0
OW 11 3345 723 737 195 1 0 0
VODI 3 1855 1167 1917 804 49 0 0
ODI 0 150 299 1269 964 538 1 0
CDI 0 13 3 529 1963 852 23 7
VCDI 0 0 0 47 1642 11167 22339 13322
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81926 35547 3918 628 88 0 0 0
OW 14 2587 681 587 153 1 0 0
VODI 0 1893 1105 1914 681 49 0 0
ODI 0 184 238 1286 1153 486 1 0
CDI 0 17 47 473 1973 956 22 5
VCDI 0 0 0 100 1556 11115 22340 13324

Date: 2016-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78165 36211 4490 363 36 7 0 0
OW 24 3339 672 453 44 6 0 0
VODI 0 2779 1488 1443 460 158 0 0
ODI 0 399 476 1687 1115 395 8 0
CDI 0 39 45 788 1576 886 36 22
VCDI 0 0 0 211 1763 9902 20820 16742
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78176 36896 4647 372 40 7 0 0
OW 13 2516 509 420 89 21 0 0
VODI 0 2922 1503 1350 370 173 1 0
ODI 0 388 442 1708 1089 411 7 0
CDI 0 45 52 855 1628 864 37 21
VCDI 0 0 18 240 1778 9878 20819 16743

Date: 2016-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83736 36724 3664 536 37 0 0 0
OW 4 1570 1434 1709 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 328 254 2631 530 17 0 0
ODI 0 8 2 742 2062 303 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 117 1275 1421 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 913 8502 17618 20813
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83692 32148 2540 475 44 0 0 0
OW 48 2183 540 664 43 26 0 0
VODI 0 3156 1105 1085 344 136 0 0
ODI 0 1106 1026 1671 682 315 3 0
CDI 0 35 131 1351 1346 680 71 0
VCDI 0 2 12 514 2404 9086 17571 20813

Date: 2016-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72816 43260 3702 559 51 21 0 0
OW 5 2442 1163 1198 268 13 0 0
VODI 0 1309 972 2710 1207 33 0 0
ODI 0 91 23 692 1717 309 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 163 1540 1627 80 0
VCDI 0 0 0 65 678 9443 20129 18759
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72812 40808 3436 480 105 26 0 0
OW 9 2029 475 721 241 10 0 0
VODI 0 2648 781 1051 562 49 0 0
ODI 0 1384 904 1315 789 306 5 0
CDI 0 228 261 1350 1741 880 128 0
VCDI 0 5 3 470 2023 10175 20079 18759

Date: 2016-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76530 36606 3819 560 53 20 0 0
OW 6 2118 814 966 133 22 0 0
VODI 0 1462 1140 2468 1003 84 0 0
ODI 0 374 166 1190 2182 375 4 0
CDI 0 5 0 163 1262 2020 85 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 471 8966 23584 18384
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76527 35583 3677 581 66 24 0 0
OW 9 1594 499 742 197 24 0 0
VODI 0 2188 791 1472 581 169 0 0
ODI 0 1074 715 1125 1086 529 9 0
CDI 0 117 188 1063 1464 1316 134 2
VCDI 0 9 69 377 1710 9425 23530 18382


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