Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-10-20

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-10-24

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 637 336 145 0 0 0 0
OW 0 34 39 198 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 24 327 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 116 333 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 334 375 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 226 3633 13405 16615
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 434 272 89 0 0 0 0
OW 0 54 27 102 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 126 45 198 21 0 0 0
ODI 0 60 50 259 192 44 4 0
CDI 0 0 5 152 233 316 261 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 482 3657 13173 16615

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 216 41 29 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 6 42 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 87 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 94 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 58 37 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 542 1315 571
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 217 47 47 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 39 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 23 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 8 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 98 27 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 79 548 1316 571

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1530 336 44 0 0 0 0
OW 0 489 311 361 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 78 153 670 189 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 61 556 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 94 313 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 338 2123 2309
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1744 443 158 6 0 0 0
OW 0 305 152 178 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 192 518 107 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 264 380 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 290 253 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 410 2129 2309

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3207 534 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 338 290 38 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 196 417 37 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 283 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 236 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3240 530 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 219 90 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 114 241 249 142 26 0 0
ODI 0 3 159 200 181 236 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1740 108 1 0 0 0 0
OW 5 966 213 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 451 483 627 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 180 411 14 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 0 149 505 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 237 1102 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1852 47 1 0 0 0 0
OW 5 823 92 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 423 463 391 103 0 0 0
ODI 0 51 188 295 258 119 0 0
CDI 0 16 15 126 170 282 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 49 355 1031 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 183 211 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 171 197 65 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 152 484 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 225 417 75 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 342 898 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 692 1130 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 265 355 48 0 0 0 0
OW 0 76 75 110 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 80 199 47 5 0 0
ODI 0 4 48 257 187 151 10 0
CDI 0 0 2 170 492 1094 97 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 42 415 1048 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 4967 1003 51 0 0 0 0
OW 0 47 61 58 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 4 34 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 1 0 15 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 4924 1025 51 0 0 0 0
OW 0 109 39 39 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 55 5 44 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 26 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6321 4609 364 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6321 4607 364 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5456 3459 384 162 8 0 0 0
OW 0 0 27 157 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 129 75 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 147 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 205 57 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 690 655 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5456 3458 326 164 12 0 0 0
OW 0 1 74 87 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 128 56 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 73 89 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 208 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 95 733 656 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9514 3377 97 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9514 3377 97 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5 4059 427 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 96 201 152 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 26 215 21 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 85 145 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 121 52 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 37 70 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5 3790 198 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 195 62 48 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 181 148 90 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 232 137 45 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 14 180 172 32 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 76 57 70 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3676 4244 334 56 0 0 0 0
OW 0 187 15 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 3 30 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3676 3761 227 56 0 0 0 0
OW 0 339 37 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 292 75 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 59 13 31 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17596 2494 85 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 3 6 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 3 6 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17596 2493 83 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 4 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 4 6 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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