Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-10-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80767 16012 1705 520 12 0 0 0
OW 0 0 9 184 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 135 141 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 159 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 274 218 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 64 1616 5739 1330
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77582 16760 3696 669 38 0 0 0
OW 0 0 19 183 99 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 136 133 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 93 94 80 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 203 189 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 201 2762 4699 1367
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82281 14728 1089 533 11 0 0 0
OW 0 0 6 225 76 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 122 153 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 188 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 296 195 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 71 1521 5734 1753
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82005 14839 1293 395 7 0 0 0
OW 0 2 17 244 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 134 155 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 84 179 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 342 107 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 127 1078 5733 2240
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82005 14841 1284 382 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 26 224 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 163 136 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 94 199 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 64 348 104 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 130 1081 5734 2240

Date: 2016-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76847 17388 3643 437 6 0 0 0
OW 0 47 93 204 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 5 208 96 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 134 134 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 121 248 43 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 399 3348 4036 1587
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76847 17417 3670 414 11 0 0 0
OW 0 20 67 188 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 4 239 94 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 140 132 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 118 257 45 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 402 3338 4033 1587

Date: 2016-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80752 16297 1057 299 8 0 0 0
OW 0 15 38 285 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 228 101 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 73 231 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 380 90 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 185 2367 3471 3157
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80748 16238 938 278 12 0 0 0
OW 4 51 127 156 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 30 225 68 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 143 125 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 109 302 17 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 392 2440 3472 3157

Date: 2016-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78015 18623 1364 314 25 0 0 0
OW 4 72 131 222 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 24 205 89 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 115 166 2 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 416 142 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 214 3031 4313 1527
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78015 18590 1238 216 31 0 0 0
OW 4 75 179 137 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 97 225 56 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 161 112 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 147 316 47 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 402 3127 4319 1527

Date: 2016-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77582 18836 1636 251 41 0 0 0
OW 5 130 104 214 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 94 78 230 96 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 130 169 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 68 372 58 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 514 2844 4199 1408
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77581 18714 1372 107 38 0 0 0
OW 6 231 220 37 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 109 144 153 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 53 188 34 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 29 284 161 29 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 124 942 2884 4199 1407


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