Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2016-10-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 841 9730 425 91 0 0 0 0
OW 33 1535 446 103 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 1177 840 1516 145 8 0 0
ODI 0 74 88 363 664 206 48 0
CDI 0 0 5 14 291 752 389 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4006 8108 180
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 276 8650 1458 85 0 0 0 0
OW 99 1592 379 115 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1165 902 1404 132 9 3 0
ODI 0 110 85 756 823 101 9 0
CDI 0 13 9 26 412 734 267 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 5142 7312 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 277 10249 822 114 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1134 546 295 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 447 701 1573 114 0 1 0
ODI 0 20 32 623 1150 29 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 390 821 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 6306 6319 45
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 414 8796 1193 104 0 0 0 0
OW 3 916 201 193 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 567 703 1062 324 62 0 0
ODI 0 9 147 892 1170 303 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 430 955 215 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 30 3863 9281 203
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 417 8794 1201 158 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1025 433 252 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 452 518 952 429 97 1 0
ODI 0 17 92 887 1169 430 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 329 859 223 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 19 3797 9260 203

Date: 2016-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 6565 3054 136 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1034 296 166 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 644 606 605 53 0 0 0
ODI 0 144 292 763 878 209 4 0
CDI 0 0 19 351 794 977 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 325 2404 10617 1051
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 6691 3079 188 0 0 0 0
OW 0 917 268 191 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 698 614 530 137 0 0 0
ODI 0 72 274 702 793 436 11 0
CDI 0 9 32 412 802 843 139 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 309 2311 10547 1051

Date: 2016-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 7370 1580 107 0 0 0 0
OW 5 1197 435 180 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 549 631 1042 41 0 0 0
ODI 0 18 2 416 794 91 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 14 621 1384 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 80 2785 9016 3687
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 7358 1643 116 0 0 0 0
OW 5 1033 215 175 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 613 503 569 100 5 0 0
ODI 0 115 265 509 400 211 10 0
CDI 0 16 22 371 755 1390 179 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 276 2654 8863 3687

Date: 2016-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 422 6455 984 112 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1097 688 297 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 500 638 557 58 0 0 0
ODI 0 81 200 575 447 97 6 0
CDI 0 4 0 141 579 656 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 395 3894 10655 2517
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 422 6534 1245 302 13 0 0 0
OW 0 792 338 184 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 618 518 309 135 5 0 0
ODI 0 146 336 558 273 125 6 0
CDI 0 36 72 248 526 841 82 0
VCDI 0 11 1 91 510 3676 10585 2517

Date: 2016-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90 6474 754 42 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1537 178 105 114 11 0 0
VODI 0 952 348 286 397 57 0 0
ODI 0 138 193 264 335 230 5 0
CDI 0 35 24 202 477 525 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 421 4894 9959 2999
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90 6220 773 79 291 44 0 0
OW 0 830 125 62 171 100 0 0
VODI 0 1333 102 81 276 129 0 0
ODI 0 515 191 148 199 394 1 0
CDI 0 191 217 268 295 823 97 0
VCDI 0 47 89 283 512 4227 9880 2999


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