Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-10-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85748 40831 3578 900 12 0 0 0
OW 33 2209 1539 616 96 0 0 0
VODI 0 1333 1177 3058 489 66 0 0
ODI 0 82 100 751 1774 399 73 0
CDI 0 0 5 37 1004 1675 484 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 111 8130 26658 4077
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81327 40039 6863 966 38 0 0 0
OW 99 2484 1240 584 101 0 0 0
VODI 0 1273 1596 2669 523 47 3 0
ODI 0 183 159 1285 1513 474 49 0
CDI 0 14 9 115 987 1692 559 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 224 10221 22964 6742
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85932 39163 3099 1016 11 0 0 0
OW 0 2144 1677 1173 77 0 0 0
VODI 0 763 1173 3208 399 2 1 0
ODI 0 37 34 913 2051 119 15 0
CDI 0 1 0 49 1034 1776 73 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 119 9778 21887 9323
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85380 36597 4093 906 14 0 0 0
OW 3 1888 897 995 82 0 0 0
VODI 0 912 1436 2942 1094 68 0 0
ODI 0 56 180 1410 1922 536 13 0
CDI 0 6 0 149 1156 1646 297 2
VCDI 0 0 0 4 283 7065 23688 11328
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85361 36830 4074 1010 20 0 0 0
OW 22 1701 1221 1039 91 0 0 0
VODI 0 845 1193 2913 1226 100 1 0
ODI 0 78 118 1312 1956 664 25 0
CDI 0 5 0 125 997 1601 304 3
VCDI 0 0 0 7 261 6950 23668 11327

Date: 2016-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79360 36529 7947 721 6 0 0 0
OW 0 2013 1058 782 69 2 0 0
VODI 0 897 1516 2132 468 23 0 0
ODI 0 144 453 1898 1971 601 4 0
CDI 0 0 19 564 1505 1810 185 5
VCDI 0 0 0 46 808 7407 23384 12721
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79360 36961 8013 862 18 2 0 0
OW 0 1529 889 725 67 6 0 0
VODI 0 1011 1586 2138 666 71 0 0
ODI 0 73 473 1731 1833 765 11 0
CDI 0 9 32 636 1452 1768 252 6
VCDI 0 0 0 51 791 7231 23310 12720

Date: 2016-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84428 34722 4260 573 8 0 0 0
OW 5 2336 1363 1102 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 706 1045 3026 401 0 0 0
ODI 0 18 2 764 2401 148 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 73 1306 2473 96 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 306 6169 19800 19495
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84424 34162 4014 666 18 0 0 0
OW 9 2129 653 624 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 1283 1264 1848 487 31 0 0
ODI 0 193 703 1585 1366 556 14 0
CDI 0 16 36 740 1663 2028 459 0
VCDI 0 0 0 76 834 6175 19423 19495

Date: 2016-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82224 35128 3770 532 25 0 0 0
OW 4 2735 1472 813 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 1209 1501 2163 703 15 0 0
ODI 0 90 235 1414 1225 359 8 0
CDI 0 4 0 375 1926 1073 20 2
VCDI 0 0 0 15 1043 10059 22470 14391
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82224 35179 4128 827 59 0 0 0
OW 4 1866 680 545 156 2 0 0
VODI 0 1681 1257 1249 656 56 0 0
ODI 0 367 817 1580 1000 306 6 0
CDI 0 62 95 905 1565 1354 85 0
VCDI 0 11 1 206 1531 9788 22407 14393

Date: 2016-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80659 35705 3359 553 41 0 0 0
OW 5 3377 585 567 161 11 0 0
VODI 0 2500 1307 1495 906 65 0 0
ODI 0 259 363 1137 1096 611 5 0
CDI 0 35 24 633 1453 1105 33 28
VCDI 0 0 0 113 1709 10852 20566 15730
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80658 35593 3306 762 431 76 0 0
OW 6 1967 505 252 350 147 0 0
VODI 0 2715 518 571 637 395 0 0
ODI 0 1257 703 891 578 702 1 0
CDI 0 297 479 1166 970 1273 147 50
VCDI 0 47 127 856 2400 10051 20456 15708


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