Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-10-06

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-10-10

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1487 364 135 0 0 0 0
OW 0 227 348 299 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 127 846 139 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 87 984 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 342 1309 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 7482 20396 2207
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1554 361 163 23 0 0 0
OW 0 139 295 191 37 1 0 0
VODI 0 21 173 553 145 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 351 326 142 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 98 734 609 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 266 8055 20396 2207

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 260 96 96 0 0 0 0
OW 0 147 54 47 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 84 74 105 45 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 148 38 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 78 201 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 868 766 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 422 176 111 7 0 0 0
OW 0 55 22 31 12 4 0 0
VODI 0 14 26 75 32 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 72 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 97 89 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 67 990 766 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2012 2306 124 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 256 326 90 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 117 692 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 421 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 98 512 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 220 2591 83
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2012 2204 223 76 0 0 0 0
OW 0 351 257 126 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 87 557 158 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 92 221 166 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 132 263 263 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 308 2349 83

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1110 3826 424 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 41 132 79 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1110 3800 407 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 67 133 91 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 16 30 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 239 3389 124 0 0 0 0 0
OW 4 816 316 195 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 359 146 500 26 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 283 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 55 246 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 155 311 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 243 3960 157 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 484 167 88 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 120 262 420 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 210 76 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 234 69 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 30 337 327 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1025 334 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 854 433 69 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 420 474 419 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 54 171 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 105 320 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 124 446 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1553 335 12 0 0 0 0
OW 0 554 497 50 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 190 370 114 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 39 232 35 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 143 201 140 87 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 303 412 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 824 5259 225 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 824 5266 225 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8006 3146 143 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8006 3146 143 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6199 3182 390 159 1 0 0 0
OW 0 1 16 116 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 82 77 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 136 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 79 290 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 232 624 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6199 3183 395 238 81 0 0 0
OW 0 0 7 49 74 11 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 46 60 47 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 30 37 94 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 64 122 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 29 275 567 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9990 2930 68 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9990 2930 68 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1068 4202 132 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 55 60 42 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 76 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 22 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 4 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 87 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1068 4207 168 42 0 0 0 0
OW 0 52 24 52 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 41 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 16 15 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 89 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2632 5502 413 40 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2632 5502 413 40 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18235 1922 42 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18235 1922 42 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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