Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2016-10-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1714 12883 923 154 0 0 0 0
OW 0 416 353 201 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 80 159 603 188 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 301 691 170 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 371 1815 145 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 3818 7027 14
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2011 11416 1567 83 0 0 0 0
OW 0 785 325 223 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 59 291 579 195 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 340 640 164 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 391 1390 163 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4097 5912 1433
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2141 11965 772 158 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1074 321 329 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 65 657 172 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 114 826 73 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 293 1352 138 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6151 5414 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3549 9747 830 86 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1487 537 311 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 116 139 732 159 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 172 634 136 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 408 1214 135 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 6899 4714 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3549 10044 893 104 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1129 422 310 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 171 186 603 181 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 6 262 484 129 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 508 1259 133 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 42 6861 4736 0

Date: 2016-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 344 10580 2775 89 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1229 992 271 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 145 317 782 114 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 346 582 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 564 1238 129 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 5908 5604 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 344 10857 2926 101 0 0 0 0
OW 0 902 662 224 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 190 494 674 143 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 435 414 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 85 676 1063 141 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 6075 5592 0

Date: 2016-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1495 10068 723 72 0 0 0 0
OW 4 1723 796 174 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 779 720 1055 77 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 148 945 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 283 1472 83 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 3430 7987 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1499 11220 862 134 23 0 0 0
OW 0 1039 691 95 32 1 0 0
VODI 0 309 647 472 144 18 0 0
ODI 0 8 39 570 227 149 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 178 807 658 101 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 82 4108 7969 0

Date: 2016-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 654 10534 467 75 0 0 0 0
OW 71 1486 557 180 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 1148 788 1281 149 10 0 0
ODI 0 61 6 265 782 111 1 0
CDI 0 2 0 4 264 1157 123 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3858 7978 66
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 725 11591 671 186 20 0 0 0
OW 0 1243 500 147 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 359 619 663 99 16 0 0
ODI 0 38 28 624 289 93 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 185 693 736 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 74 4291 8053 66

Date: 2016-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 841 9730 425 91 0 0 0 0
OW 33 1535 446 103 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 1177 840 1516 145 8 0 0
ODI 0 74 88 363 664 206 48 0
CDI 0 0 5 14 291 752 389 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4006 8108 180
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 874 10976 646 237 53 2 0 0
OW 0 1189 465 152 25 7 0 0
VODI 0 338 533 963 68 34 0 0
ODI 0 13 160 481 267 135 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 241 508 499 319 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 183 4295 8226 180


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