Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-10-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6800 13775 2639 332 23 0 0 0
OW 0 499 786 580 146 24 0 0
VODI 0 17 245 1260 347 110 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 100 1043 664 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 236 1368 914 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 2972 9543 1393
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7963 14158 997 143 0 0 0 0
OW 0 840 963 563 95 3 0 0
VODI 0 92 458 1175 232 79 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 310 958 424 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 298 1389 412 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 3254 8205 2837
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7353 14842 1883 775 0 0 0 0
OW 0 176 288 692 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 93 851 285 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 378 714 122 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 575 1129 142 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 6243 8753 492
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6676 14688 1694 966 4 0 0 0
OW 0 320 259 872 96 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 170 758 463 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 294 651 125 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 624 1020 160 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 6115 9237 583
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6676 14827 1760 1155 8 0 0 0
OW 0 180 259 684 161 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 97 691 325 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 7 341 519 138 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 773 896 253 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 77 6241 9150 583

Date: 2016-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5930 15648 1672 266 2 0 0 0
OW 0 229 592 780 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 130 1234 272 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 110 888 41 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 384 1091 95 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 5411 10152 864
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5930 15549 1757 355 7 0 0 0
OW 0 328 563 818 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 63 1011 219 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 11 201 733 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 558 897 132 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 61 5605 10116 864

Date: 2016-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5986 15011 1270 164 0 0 0 0
OW 0 680 862 506 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 101 219 1515 98 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 101 979 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 261 1042 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 3112 11974 1880
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5986 15090 1459 279 7 0 0 0
OW 0 645 649 480 15 4 0 0
VODI 0 57 242 1246 213 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 264 497 189 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 489 509 264 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 133 3500 11732 1880

Date: 2016-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5235 15143 1265 186 2 0 0 0
OW 0 882 687 441 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 140 386 1345 337 29 0 0
ODI 0 20 1 184 730 154 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 334 781 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 2816 12741 1914
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5235 15249 1391 289 34 1 0 0
OW 0 790 544 371 81 6 0 0
VODI 0 143 404 1224 306 28 3 0
ODI 0 3 0 255 579 190 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 387 603 204 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 2952 12596 1914

Date: 2016-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4140 15089 1448 289 0 0 0 0
OW 0 674 1084 329 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 156 337 1407 203 45 0 0
ODI 0 8 12 325 951 152 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 439 705 95 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 2508 12811 2567
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4134 14990 1777 554 32 3 0 0
OW 6 691 464 366 131 41 1 0
VODI 0 246 637 986 309 116 24 0
ODI 0 0 3 414 663 159 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 424 589 168 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 100 2502 12712 2567


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