Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-10-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94372 38521 5143 741 23 0 0 0
OW 0 915 1189 977 200 24 0 0
VODI 0 97 414 2056 627 122 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 500 1881 863 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 891 3357 1063 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 129 8160 21807 2885
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93554 39036 4627 472 89 0 0 0
OW 0 1635 1383 903 163 9 0 0
VODI 0 151 799 1864 509 130 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 771 1661 660 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 109 831 2938 586 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 217 11119 17093 5714
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91132 42333 4644 1244 21 0 0 0
OW 0 1252 647 1208 89 0 0 0
VODI 0 80 159 1670 589 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 567 1673 283 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 1078 2810 281 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 52 15315 18440 1428
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91837 40374 4083 1308 27 0 0 0
OW 0 1815 866 1360 156 0 0 0
VODI 0 142 318 1686 746 33 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 548 1411 332 44 0
CDI 0 0 0 75 1231 2520 302 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 80 14928 19795 1030
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91837 40817 4230 1560 49 0 0 0
OW 0 1310 724 1147 227 0 0 0
VODI 0 192 301 1463 628 24 0 0
ODI 0 12 13 688 1102 347 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 119 1490 2423 393 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 155 15019 19730 1030

Date: 2016-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88076 41179 6570 673 39 0 0 0
OW 0 1460 1679 1182 104 0 0 0
VODI 0 173 476 2228 464 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 586 1563 183 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 1185 2531 263 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 127 14353 20275 1554
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88076 41359 6801 796 67 0 0 0
OW 0 1230 1307 1155 86 1 0 0
VODI 0 204 601 1844 429 50 0 0
ODI 0 19 16 781 1220 183 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 163 1451 2138 289 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 229 14747 20250 1554

Date: 2016-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92175 38436 2879 522 1 0 0 0
OW 4 2404 1685 937 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 880 939 2762 310 4 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 297 2165 117 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 771 2882 130 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 71 9168 25134 2290
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92179 39649 3113 744 111 0 0 0
OW 0 1702 1402 678 126 16 0 0
VODI 0 367 937 1836 432 72 0 0
ODI 0 8 51 953 782 432 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 298 1475 1294 435 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 456 10357 24817 2290

Date: 2016-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87359 40146 4194 903 16 0 0 0
OW 71 2368 1259 793 127 0 0 0
VODI 0 1288 1177 2751 664 45 0 0
ODI 0 81 7 510 1677 322 4 0
CDI 0 2 0 30 788 2327 224 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 48 8161 26756 2945
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87430 41292 4466 1114 168 2 0 0
OW 0 2047 1093 610 190 39 0 0
VODI 0 505 1047 1992 490 132 3 0
ODI 0 41 31 972 942 375 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 299 1268 1513 313 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 262 8794 26658 2945

Date: 2016-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85748 40831 3578 900 12 0 0 0
OW 33 2209 1539 616 96 0 0 0
VODI 0 1333 1177 3058 489 66 0 0
ODI 0 82 100 751 1774 399 73 0
CDI 0 0 5 37 1004 1675 484 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 111 8130 26658 4077
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85775 41973 4057 1193 111 5 0 0
OW 6 1885 981 692 213 48 1 0
VODI 0 584 1197 2106 489 157 24 0
ODI 0 13 164 998 1065 342 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 348 1110 1280 489 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 498 8438 26675 4077


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