Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-09-29

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-10-03

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2 1776 809 198 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 67 454 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 609 217 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 75 990 134 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 284 1715 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 9765 16570 3143
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2 1416 366 95 0 0 0 0
OW 0 312 196 198 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 289 661 160 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 25 282 659 364 120 0
CDI 0 0 0 101 540 1327 670 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 145 9921 15846 3143

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 747 178 118 0 0 0 0
OW 0 21 29 62 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 40 14 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 91 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 70 498 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 788 414 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 731 163 120 0 0 0 0
OW 0 37 44 61 0 11 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 36 21 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 29 83 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 116 306 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 904 407 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2053 3244 208 33 0 0 0 0
OW 0 49 295 123 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 518 74 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 622 117 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 85 615 75 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 151 1638 10
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2053 3082 247 145 29 2 0 0
OW 0 201 159 266 189 35 0 0
VODI 0 10 103 178 156 157 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 133 201 138 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 213 406 324 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 151 1336 10

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1234 3669 523 35 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 18 99 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 76 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1234 3238 252 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 367 236 54 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 64 53 143 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 540 4076 285 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 370 311 235 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 48 457 28 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 181 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 32 217 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 76 327 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 540 4247 295 42 0 0 0 0
OW 0 162 153 84 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 193 505 76 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 112 108 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 57 182 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 70 298 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2262 497 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 481 96 101 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 10 248 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 267 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 50 300 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 29 787 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2177 373 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 506 101 29 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 98 126 170 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 180 128 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 194 245 42 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 87 834 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1535 4602 186 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1535 4601 186 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6559 4464 265 43 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6559 4464 265 43 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5053 4110 783 130 34 0 0 0
OW 0 2 11 82 63 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 76 78 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 68 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 63 245 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 499 269 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5053 4112 748 157 111 6 0 0
OW 0 0 30 32 66 41 0 0
VODI 0 0 16 50 23 80 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 12 85 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 50 91 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 52 522 264 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8161 3640 907 280 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8161 3640 907 280 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1213 4336 97 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 32 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 55 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 30 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1213 4350 97 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 4 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 35 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1582 5968 984 53 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1582 5968 984 53 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18239 1896 49 25 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18239 1896 49 25 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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