Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-09-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88104 10380 1040 324 19 0 0 0
OW 0 0 70 212 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 200 205 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 241 230 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 124 826 263 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1980 4360 372
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88564 9797 1003 311 1 0 0 0
OW 0 6 85 224 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 168 205 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 58 257 110 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 101 700 310 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2879 4270 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87721 10489 1166 394 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 5 242 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 192 124 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 329 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 378 533 68 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 2651 4733 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86233 10869 2258 273 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 36 224 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 216 98 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 70 232 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 342 365 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 82 1611 5668 477
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86233 10869 2246 320 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 48 188 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 196 115 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 76 225 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 339 366 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 1601 5671 477

Date: 2016-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81310 16233 1608 318 13 0 0 0
OW 0 1 100 137 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 39 131 114 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 109 113 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 91 193 135 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 152 1861 4981 1356
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81310 16228 1614 382 28 0 0 0
OW 0 6 82 92 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 49 105 98 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 106 110 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 93 145 148 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 182 1814 4986 1356

Date: 2016-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80621 15966 2331 536 34 0 0 0
OW 0 2 35 180 68 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 176 134 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 77 169 76 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 209 364 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 3736 3860 468
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80621 15953 2200 541 111 6 0 0
OW 0 15 83 101 67 41 0 0
VODI 0 0 63 104 56 80 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 92 67 85 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 125 132 120 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 197 3861 3851 468

Date: 2016-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79577 16930 2145 753 39 0 0 0
OW 0 6 56 173 71 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 185 106 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 82 117 79 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 244 261 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 2339 4947 825
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79577 16867 2060 736 102 5 0 0
OW 0 59 58 121 47 67 0 0
VODI 0 10 65 136 37 81 13 0
ODI 0 0 20 102 70 49 28 0
CDI 0 0 1 121 180 91 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 172 2440 4890 825

Date: 2016-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81973 15359 1723 317 16 0 0 0
OW 0 3 80 197 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 205 131 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 100 125 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 259 233 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 125 2498 5351 225
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81973 15358 1630 347 32 0 0 0
OW 0 4 132 163 84 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 51 154 95 48 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 113 96 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 79 239 134 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 170 2551 5351 225


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