Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2016-09-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2406 13570 824 248 10 0 0 0
OW 0 448 345 454 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 167 382 1282 821 24 17 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 1258 935 57 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 70 3913 1944 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1390 1434 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1994 12938 1417 223 4 0 0 0
OW 0 232 250 526 100 4 0 0
VODI 0 87 134 799 750 288 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 111 947 1229 81 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 28 2143 1180 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1531 5086 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1564 13293 1198 139 0 0 0 0
OW 0 247 287 270 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 155 675 242 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 191 1105 183 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 216 2292 581 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2661 6737 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1285 13185 1124 148 0 0 0 0
OW 0 423 363 211 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 205 626 165 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 360 783 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 581 1699 283 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 5013 5350 132
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1285 13164 1182 167 0 0 0 0
OW 0 410 288 187 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 85 210 585 157 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 28 362 770 105 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 597 1556 344 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 5094 5289 132

Date: 2016-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1863 12573 870 117 0 0 0 0
OW 0 525 363 237 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 220 632 170 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 295 742 103 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 383 1500 274 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 2647 8243 259
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1863 12693 938 126 0 0 0 0
OW 0 407 301 205 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 201 622 176 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 21 293 575 124 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 539 1403 318 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 2722 8199 259

Date: 2016-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2232 11804 1125 143 0 0 0 0
OW 0 848 315 319 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 57 678 164 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 65 940 107 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 189 1566 112 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3401 7249 729
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2232 11882 977 98 0 0 0 0
OW 0 676 272 218 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 132 242 531 180 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 334 487 209 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 627 1282 265 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3581 7096 729

Date: 2016-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3544 10030 822 138 0 0 0 0
OW 84 1241 391 370 12 0 0 0
VODI 5 101 95 626 229 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 152 602 208 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 334 1292 139 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 7470 4169 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3575 10243 710 166 2 0 0 0
OW 55 853 265 262 22 0 0 0
VODI 3 262 278 441 260 9 0 0
ODI 0 14 55 282 364 266 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 152 441 1197 240 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 97 7498 4050 0

Date: 2016-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1519 11213 1117 116 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1437 616 326 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 142 200 708 198 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 247 520 222 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 396 1244 175 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 5256 6382 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1519 11575 1176 224 3 0 0 0
OW 0 848 374 284 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 317 314 406 267 67 0 0
ODI 0 52 57 313 229 338 1 0
CDI 0 0 14 196 455 1102 208 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 108 5222 6348 0


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