Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-09-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99015 37424 3510 951 29 0 0 0
OW 0 981 1215 1707 180 0 0 0
VODI 0 168 615 3462 3303 90 81 0
ODI 0 0 0 270 2678 1727 161 0
CDI 0 0 0 80 710 6256 2733 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 160 7755 11055 720
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100464 35025 3422 902 19 0 0 0
OW 0 1036 1033 1660 206 4 0 0
VODI 0 136 446 2938 2037 314 26 3
ODI 0 0 4 373 2577 2571 232 0
CDI 0 0 0 121 634 4548 2233 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 140 9724 14211 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97298 37313 4662 1042 7 0 0 0
OW 0 304 737 1120 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 45 231 2364 986 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 392 3075 751 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 997 5728 1025 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 6 11345 17370 130
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95215 38234 4959 829 63 1 0 0
OW 0 829 1080 906 148 69 1 0
VODI 0 70 496 2045 562 109 35 0
ODI 0 0 16 775 2247 313 66 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 1278 3985 863 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 116 9567 20135 1989
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95215 38334 5053 930 74 6 0 0
OW 0 701 969 797 160 69 4 0
VODI 0 98 500 1888 499 116 37 0
ODI 0 0 29 887 2211 380 94 0
CDI 0 0 0 100 1381 4017 1101 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 89 9456 19864 1989

Date: 2016-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88892 44930 3772 729 37 0 0 0
OW 0 1181 1363 888 191 17 0 0
VODI 0 61 589 2063 499 122 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 620 1677 853 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 92 614 2872 1343 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 165 7521 21271 4635
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88892 45251 4140 1037 110 7 0 0
OW 0 854 965 586 160 25 0 0
VODI 0 67 602 1890 500 134 0 0
ODI 0 0 27 742 1413 809 94 0
CDI 0 0 0 129 804 3094 1468 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 196 7316 21081 4635

Date: 2016-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88031 44790 5771 998 34 0 0 0
OW 0 955 827 1156 77 1 0 0
VODI 0 47 64 2024 427 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 213 2222 360 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 589 3645 243 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 11338 20005 3153
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88031 43922 4932 1015 140 8 0 0
OW 0 1605 919 724 256 87 0 0
VODI 0 265 780 1743 447 264 7 0
ODI 0 0 31 754 1141 739 173 0
CDI 0 0 0 149 1174 2592 1088 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 215 11680 18985 3153

Date: 2016-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89493 42180 4770 1860 77 0 0 0
OW 84 1460 748 1272 268 8 0 0
VODI 5 118 225 1551 732 100 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 565 1385 404 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 1186 2538 402 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 67 16642 17987 845
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89524 41837 4120 1402 109 5 0 0
OW 55 1630 1018 1239 174 67 0 0
VODI 3 277 529 1661 983 156 13 0
ODI 0 14 75 708 951 718 259 0
CDI 0 0 1 288 1188 2099 956 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 310 16647 17176 845

Date: 2016-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90061 41183 4874 942 16 0 0 0
OW 0 1838 958 1402 139 0 0 0
VODI 0 164 390 1787 805 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 622 1269 445 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 68 1307 2362 374 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 177 14141 20897 789
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90061 41072 4267 980 38 0 0 0
OW 0 1661 1231 1031 172 1 0 0
VODI 0 400 654 1757 878 168 0 0
ODI 0 52 58 761 927 742 135 0
CDI 0 0 14 288 1314 2007 723 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 384 14057 20422 789


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