Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-09-22

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-26

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1198 485 189 3 0 0 0
OW 0 1 133 312 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 21 960 240 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 98 2251 138 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 338 4123 316 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 9749 16015 305
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1193 376 247 31 0 0 0
OW 0 6 181 295 112 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 82 955 1596 455 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 955 1895 231 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 161 2150 2521 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 9510 13580 303

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 893 212 133 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 2 106 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 239 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 70 217 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 228 266 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 77 477 119 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 888 205 138 2 0 0 0
OW 0 9 9 105 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 157 37 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 94 123 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 75 262 291 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 134 456 67 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2837 3275 438 71 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 122 189 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 488 73 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 813 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 205 991 72 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 200 117 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2837 2816 86 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 461 305 52 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 169 528 231 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 209 562 241 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 298 816 126 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 158 63 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 426 3657 397 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 14 177 223 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 558 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 143 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 426 3432 305 79 0 0 0 0
OW 0 130 59 131 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 109 215 541 91 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 74 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1387 3743 293 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 124 187 167 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 75 386 251 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 236 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 297 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 27 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1387 3768 326 120 3 0 0 0
OW 0 99 194 325 182 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 35 132 254 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 59 231 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 73 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5 3075 208 15 0 0 0 0
OW 1 148 100 93 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 30 216 38 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 246 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 53 711 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 99 233 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6 3199 263 74 0 0 0 0
OW 0 24 57 108 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 157 163 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 127 244 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 35 473 132 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 89 109 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1381 4006 908 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1381 4006 908 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8721 2571 38 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8721 2571 38 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3889 4053 2254 287 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 2 132 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 85 79 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 241 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 63 406 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 72 52 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3889 4052 2255 367 12 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 112 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 25 144 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 148 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 41 398 90 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 27 26 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10624 2208 156 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10624 2208 156 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1811 3089 767 41 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 43 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 25 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1811 3077 767 41 0 0 0 0
OW 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 31 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 13 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 11 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5404 2930 247 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5404 2930 247 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18769 1408 20 12 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18769 1408 20 12 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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