Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-09-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86758 10568 2035 671 35 0 0 0
OW 0 0 47 237 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 241 183 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 396 89 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 175 1365 641 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2066 3454 14
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90426 8033 1233 523 21 0 0 0
OW 0 0 46 275 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 233 195 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 85 417 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 445 1008 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 228 2943 2645 140
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91311 7698 799 249 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 62 289 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 317 153 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 75 498 82 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 163 1251 239 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 68 2524 3298 12
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84733 13257 1655 294 10 0 0 0
OW 0 7 62 258 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 210 205 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 50 290 233 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 116 1025 266 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1560 4797 17
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84733 13257 1662 378 19 0 0 0
OW 0 7 56 206 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 169 234 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 245 265 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 109 967 314 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1564 4743 17

Date: 2016-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86004 11793 1495 440 22 0 0 0
OW 0 5 57 237 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 172 220 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 235 171 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 78 784 337 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2603 4334 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86004 11796 1504 553 41 0 0 0
OW 0 2 49 155 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 130 219 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 58 189 193 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 74 755 336 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2597 4335 0

Date: 2016-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85397 11206 2701 390 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 13 240 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 186 153 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 410 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 117 768 182 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2838 4445 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85397 11205 2685 528 35 0 0 0
OW 0 1 29 170 86 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 101 238 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 222 131 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 112 772 543 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2715 4082 0

Date: 2016-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85461 12804 1110 370 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 239 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 197 135 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 246 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 356 573 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 42 2695 4733 9
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85461 12789 1063 452 18 0 0 0
OW 0 15 33 213 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 14 127 183 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 76 205 66 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 318 886 84 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 2318 4661 9

Date: 2016-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85858 11863 1581 255 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 50 196 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 193 92 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 147 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 284 174 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 110 1370 5237 1478
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85858 11862 1486 326 59 4 0 0
OW 0 1 101 142 29 32 0 0
VODI 0 0 46 131 112 47 3 0
ODI 0 0 8 108 135 37 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 264 312 52 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 59 1147 5176 1478


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