Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2016-09-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2290 15574 1639 528 35 0 0 0
OW 0 245 233 764 97 15 0 0
VODI 0 0 17 859 550 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 202 1880 141 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1294 4570 185 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 723 210 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5640 11752 1290 329 7 23 0 0
OW 0 615 302 739 112 69 0 0
VODI 0 16 38 735 565 141 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 294 1165 568 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 1020 3298 350 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 179 2806 21 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2848 13752 1235 226 0 0 0 0
OW 0 742 437 670 11 3 0 0
VODI 0 206 337 1266 546 44 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 2259 496 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 693 5689 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 508 0 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1241 13825 2102 238 0 0 0 0
OW 0 522 330 565 23 1 0 0
VODI 0 249 414 1399 623 49 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 114 1570 608 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 454 5381 871 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1365 134 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1241 14010 2085 313 3 0 0 0
OW 0 566 571 680 23 7 0 0
VODI 0 20 190 1275 770 71 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 1410 792 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 464 4526 826 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2008 177 0

Date: 2016-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2935 12491 1082 271 7 0 0 0
OW 0 323 301 446 106 0 0 0
VODI 0 113 265 965 965 106 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 87 959 1217 94 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 34 2701 1216 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1593 3798 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2935 12619 1101 352 36 0 0 0
OW 0 303 398 505 113 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 149 854 1063 166 16 1
ODI 0 0 0 58 822 1241 125 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 2712 1333 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1498 3640 0

Date: 2016-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2926 11648 1537 166 1 0 0 0
OW 1 240 283 358 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 80 806 269 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 1491 125 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 217 2818 90 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2033 6661 240
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2927 11775 1592 304 11 0 0 0
OW 0 112 255 507 133 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 53 546 1003 156 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 42 722 1295 109 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 129 1626 1683 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1899 4959 240

Date: 2016-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 13277 2502 137 0 0 0 0
OW 0 357 342 231 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 47 241 570 169 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 475 723 122 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 532 1637 824 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 3645 6196 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 13481 2648 225 18 0 0 0
OW 0 181 250 371 90 2 0 0
VODI 0 19 189 659 702 201 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 168 536 954 196 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 99 1265 1765 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2982 5059 1

Date: 2016-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1714 12883 923 154 0 0 0 0
OW 0 416 353 201 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 80 159 603 188 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 301 691 170 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 371 1815 145 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 3818 7027 14
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1714 12965 1066 305 38 0 0 0
OW 0 402 236 297 169 32 0 0
VODI 0 12 148 545 593 486 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 112 421 1029 47 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 64 1598 1171 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2664 5948 14


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