Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-09-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9436 12460 1652 441 208 26 0 0
OW 0 670 1216 603 72 55 0 0
VODI 0 228 1989 2841 196 154 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 817 909 176 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 883 909 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 163 5666 3503 545
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9756 12422 1094 235 2 223 14 0
OW 0 973 781 483 44 107 26 0
VODI 0 157 1507 3343 461 103 23 0
ODI 0 0 3 778 1044 204 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 816 854 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 230 6248 3023 772
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9713 12633 1911 318 0 0 0 0
OW 0 447 894 553 22 92 8 0
VODI 0 24 655 3646 651 46 83 0
ODI 0 0 0 210 1484 230 93 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 482 1736 372 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 83 4295 4810 352
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10091 12220 1556 319 0 0 0 0
OW 0 578 844 887 7 27 0 0
VODI 0 2 418 3116 1223 82 42 0
ODI 0 0 0 211 1267 251 97 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 503 1277 740 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 128 2926 6400 614
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10091 12157 1451 393 0 1 0 0
OW 0 591 803 758 49 26 0 0
VODI 0 52 563 2932 1118 87 19 0
ODI 0 0 1 442 1189 217 105 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 653 1203 609 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 119 3029 6546 614

Date: 2016-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9136 13172 1156 314 2 0 0 0
OW 0 653 754 1083 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 290 1770 1950 136 54 18
ODI 0 0 2 187 1213 854 99 20
CDI 0 0 0 93 445 1649 637 10
VCDI 0 0 0 19 162 4705 5265 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9136 13100 1144 397 3 0 0 0
OW 0 641 587 723 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 469 2024 1673 126 41 15
ODI 0 0 2 213 1497 606 65 11
CDI 0 0 0 96 427 1945 419 22
VCDI 0 0 0 13 165 4667 5530 0

Date: 2016-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8788 13255 2185 278 0 0 0 0
OW 0 59 429 625 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 51 1983 336 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 192 2271 59 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 566 3208 211 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 77 5734 5457 65
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8788 12571 1675 292 2 0 0 0
OW 0 631 522 451 145 0 0 0
VODI 0 113 468 1879 1282 314 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 378 1117 1258 129 0
CDI 0 0 0 103 571 1803 736 2
VCDI 0 0 0 7 135 5626 4804 63

Date: 2016-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7414 14414 1829 516 27 0 0 0
OW 0 240 478 578 103 13 0 0
VODI 0 19 255 1143 495 93 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 464 928 598 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 563 1953 1015 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 4575 7355 689
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7414 14123 1565 287 1 0 0 0
OW 0 282 455 500 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 268 530 1623 828 288 104 0
ODI 0 0 12 215 1046 1347 636 0
CDI 0 0 0 108 207 872 1039 58
VCDI 0 0 0 4 36 4725 6642 631

Date: 2016-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6800 13775 2639 332 23 0 0 0
OW 0 499 786 580 146 24 0 0
VODI 0 17 245 1260 347 110 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 100 1043 664 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 236 1368 914 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 2972 9543 1393
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6800 13532 2655 360 16 0 0 0
OW 0 536 398 351 115 23 0 0
VODI 0 223 609 1382 744 683 175 0
ODI 0 0 8 169 618 1118 895 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 267 637 834 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 48 2677 8587 1393


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