Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-09-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 98484 38602 5326 1640 278 26 0 0
OW 0 915 1496 1604 226 70 0 0
VODI 0 228 2006 3941 929 183 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1082 3185 406 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 2352 6844 827 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 163 8455 7167 559
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 105822 32207 3617 1087 30 246 14 0
OW 0 1588 1129 1497 218 176 26 0
VODI 0 173 1547 4311 1221 244 23 0
ODI 0 0 3 1157 2626 790 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 72 2281 5160 537 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 637 11997 5689 912
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 103872 34083 3945 793 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1190 1393 1512 38 95 8 0
VODI 0 230 994 5229 1350 90 83 0
ODI 0 0 0 341 4241 808 93 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 1338 8676 669 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 151 7327 8108 364
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 96065 39302 5313 851 10 0 0 0
OW 0 1107 1236 1710 65 28 0 0
VODI 0 251 839 4725 2051 137 42 0
ODI 0 0 0 375 3127 1092 101 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 1073 7683 1877 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 128 5851 11331 631
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 96065 39424 5198 1084 22 1 0 0
OW 0 1164 1430 1644 121 33 0 0
VODI 0 72 759 4376 2122 186 19 0
ODI 0 0 1 550 2844 1274 117 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 1226 6696 1749 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 119 6601 11466 631

Date: 2016-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 98075 37456 3733 1025 31 0 0 0
OW 0 981 1112 1766 163 0 0 0
VODI 0 117 562 2907 3135 248 60 18
ODI 0 0 2 319 2407 2242 193 21
CDI 0 0 0 105 557 5134 2190 10
VCDI 0 0 0 19 162 8901 13397 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 98075 37515 3749 1302 80 0 0 0
OW 0 946 1034 1383 209 0 0 0
VODI 0 93 624 3008 2955 311 57 16
ODI 0 0 2 329 2508 2040 190 11
CDI 0 0 0 106 538 5412 2088 22
VCDI 0 0 0 13 165 8762 13505 0

Date: 2016-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 97111 36109 6423 834 3 0 0 0
OW 1 299 725 1223 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 131 2975 758 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 274 4172 210 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 900 6794 483 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 77 10605 16563 305
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 97112 35551 5952 1124 48 0 0 0
OW 0 744 806 1128 364 2 0 0
VODI 0 117 521 2526 2523 484 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 450 2061 2684 240 0
CDI 0 0 0 103 812 4201 2962 2
VCDI 0 0 0 7 135 10240 13845 303

Date: 2016-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 92875 40495 5441 1023 27 0 0 0
OW 0 597 820 1048 146 13 0 0
VODI 0 66 496 1910 799 93 6 0
ODI 0 0 12 995 1897 738 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 77 1451 4163 1851 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 66 10915 18284 699
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 92875 40393 5276 964 37 0 0 0
OW 0 478 738 1084 181 2 0 0
VODI 0 287 733 2409 1713 505 104 0
ODI 0 0 22 459 1787 2367 832 0
CDI 0 0 0 133 624 3023 2888 58
VCDI 0 0 0 4 44 10025 16362 641

Date: 2016-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 94372 38521 5143 741 23 0 0 0
OW 0 915 1189 977 200 24 0 0
VODI 0 97 414 2056 627 122 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 500 1881 863 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 891 3357 1063 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 129 8160 21807 2885
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 94372 38359 5207 991 113 4 0 0
OW 0 939 735 790 313 87 0 0
VODI 0 235 803 2058 1449 1216 184 0
ODI 0 0 16 389 1174 2184 952 0
CDI 0 0 0 79 595 2547 2057 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 107 6488 19711 2885


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