Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-09-15

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-19

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 105 2110 661 156 0 18 18 0
OW 0 678 645 618 4 42 95 0
VODI 0 178 714 3402 608 91 51 0
ODI 0 0 0 73 3189 531 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1049 7739 348 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 7442 6004 298
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 105 2388 734 234 11 155 155 0
OW 0 438 476 839 123 124 35 0
VODI 0 140 773 2055 933 202 64 0
ODI 0 0 37 1074 1255 470 96 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 2084 4155 177 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 448 10757 6020 298

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 908 202 101 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 7 98 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 204 56 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 156 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 160 257 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 53 595 238 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 912 208 174 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 86 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 93 53 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 68 64 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 191 211 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 109 648 251 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2352 3793 396 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 67 257 102 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 16 843 106 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 773 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 162 322 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 717 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2352 3275 131 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 550 282 62 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 244 507 167 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 377 576 59 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 233 143 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 65 862 0 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 336 3452 743 89 0 0 0 0
OW 0 20 296 197 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 164 276 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 51 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 336 3353 699 55 0 0 0 0
OW 0 119 394 211 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 110 226 21 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 31 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1886 3646 516 112 0 0 0 0
OW 0 167 159 204 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 23 355 46 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 124 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1886 3813 598 178 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 100 330 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 162 165 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 255 3150 349 80 0 0 0 0
OW 0 21 62 168 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 221 76 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 520 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 36 331 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 255 3171 396 156 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 20 162 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 125 148 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 253 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 205 252 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1230 4962 123 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1230 4962 123 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8224 3047 60 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8224 3047 60 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8102 2059 319 208 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 34 135 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 178 72 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 278 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 36 207 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8102 2056 316 320 20 0 0 0
OW 0 3 33 90 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 105 102 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 59 162 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 77 205 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2477 3089 112 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 0 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 41 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 26 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2477 3082 111 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 12 1 20 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 29 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 22 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5043 3223 299 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5043 3223 299 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19063 1117 19 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19063 1117 19 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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