Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-09-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86616 10292 2024 1043 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 25 331 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 270 194 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 382 189 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 528 2371 1003 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1790 1915 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91110 7650 894 321 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 36 319 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 236 231 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 351 213 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 354 1741 1147 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 87 2437 1837 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89859 8262 1517 475 20 0 0 0
OW 0 0 9 223 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 223 184 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 457 110 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 124 2072 1460 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1367 2651 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90442 8480 777 391 29 0 0 0
OW 0 0 39 247 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 248 171 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 422 91 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 256 1660 854 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1707 3169 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90442 8480 778 436 36 0 0 0
OW 0 0 34 227 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 214 182 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 64 359 81 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 299 1847 849 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1531 3174 1

Date: 2016-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88649 9945 1049 488 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 41 275 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 240 188 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 66 433 43 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 292 1103 245 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 3218 2606 95
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88649 9944 1065 565 17 0 0 0
OW 0 1 26 237 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 199 214 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 66 367 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 318 1247 311 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 63 3063 2541 101

Date: 2016-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91069 8137 691 278 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 82 269 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 326 165 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 74 619 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 250 1545 100 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 3283 2167 4
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91069 8134 688 422 20 0 0 0
OW 0 3 79 216 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 221 220 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 84 370 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 273 811 51 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 112 4011 2216 4

Date: 2016-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90182 8582 1000 252 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 48 288 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 272 135 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 110 378 135 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 174 1022 323 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1971 4193 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90182 8555 929 371 13 0 0 0
OW 0 29 74 188 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 40 226 161 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 106 262 108 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 201 646 211 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 2374 4305 0

Date: 2016-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88104 10380 1040 324 19 0 0 0
OW 0 0 70 212 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 200 205 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 241 230 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 124 826 263 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1980 4360 372
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88104 10347 976 345 103 3 0 0
OW 0 33 85 137 51 32 0 0
VODI 0 0 45 182 113 69 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 90 201 162 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 170 615 128 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 2175 4495 372


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