Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-09-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-09:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 96758 40847 8609 3220 146 0 0 0 OW 0 549 876 2203 324 0 0 0 VODI 0 121 377 2673 1772 44 0 0 ODI 0 0 0 469 4599 3072 79 0 CDI 0 0 0 78 1719 6309 1189 0 VCDI 0 0 0 1 69 7970 2975 0	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-11:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 101726 36258 7414 1843 469 26 0 0 OW 0 985 1282 2147 360 69 0 0 VODI 0 72 423 2922 1464 180 0 0 ODI 0 0 5 457 3524 2546 252 0 CDI 0 0 0 37 1400 6562 1852 0 VCDI 0 0 0 9 130 8733 3901 0	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-13:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 102551 34622 6046 1571 338 12 0 0 OW 0 673 1353 1553 222 44 0 0 VODI 0 247 1442 4088 922 64 0 0 ODI 0 0 0 518 4419 519 2 0 CDI 0 0 0 10 1368 9094 2097 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 5936 7269 61	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-15:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 102259 36294 4442 1417 322 0 0 0 OW 0 661 1470 1601 276 14 0 0 VODI 0 218 1740 4214 967 70 0 0 ODI 0 0 6 878 3722 406 0 0 CDI 0 0 0 29 2894 7110 907 0 VCDI 0 0 0 3 77 6828 7986 237	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 102259 36287 4746 1613 400 3 0 0 OW 0 705 1373 2049 224 18 0 0 VODI 0 168 1389 3438 1209 68 0 0 ODI 0 13 150 1017 3236 430 0 0 CDI 0 0 0 22 3124 7579 898 0 VCDI 0 0 0 3 65 6330 7995 237

Date: 2016-09-17:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 103036 35320 3751 1193 212 131 0 0 OW 0 1295 1301 1475 282 116 0 0 VODI 0 132 1588 4467 1029 225 0 0 ODI 0 0 0 1138 2566 892 1 0 CDI 0 0 0 79 1603 5713 1128 6 VCDI 0 0 0 1 290 10886 6347 845	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 103036 35446 4213 1404 245 168 0 0 OW 0 1176 1104 1827 229 71 0 0 VODI 0 125 1270 3580 1230 188 0 0 ODI 0 0 53 1487 2312 786 0 0 CDI 0 0 0 54 1711 6313 1365 0 VCDI 0 0 0 1 255 10437 6111 851

Date: 2016-09-19:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 103921 34556 3799 817 0 18 18 0 OW 0 965 1460 1524 18 42 95 0 VODI 0 189 922 5520 972 91 51 0 ODI 0 0 0 252 5117 588 31 0 CDI 0 0 0 14 1449 8856 412 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 8754 6242 298	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 103921 34399 3694 1189 33 155 155 0 OW 0 1129 1307 1800 194 124 35 0 VODI 0 182 1131 3302 1604 211 64 0 ODI 0 0 49 1724 2368 626 96 0 CDI 0 0 0 112 2792 4966 228 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 622 12267 6271 298

Date: 2016-09-21:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 101460 35655 4073 936 0 0 0 0 OW 0 1160 1234 1764 34 62 1 0 VODI 0 243 911 5042 1708 137 48 0 ODI 0 0 0 390 3702 716 103 0 CDI 0 0 0 33 1414 8430 930 0 VCDI 0 0 0 4 152 6938 9476 292	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 101460 35451 4010 1312 52 171 62 0 OW 0 1348 1203 1645 215 94 72 0 VODI 0 259 961 3317 1893 337 146 0 ODI 0 0 44 1710 2414 682 137 0 CDI 0 0 0 179 1949 3918 563 0 VCDI 0 0 0 6 487 11081 9578 292

Date: 2016-09-23:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 99015 37424 3510 951 29 0 0 0 OW 0 981 1215 1707 180 0 0 0 VODI 0 168 615 3462 3303 90 81 0 ODI 0 0 0 270 2678 1727 161 0 CDI 0 0 0 80 710 6256 2733 0 VCDI 0 0 0 12 160 7755 11055 720	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 99003 37414 3730 1326 158 48 101 0 OW 12 1035 1132 1670 429 112 157 0 VODI 0 121 456 2714 2655 671 258 0 ODI 0 2 21 549 2705 1518 212 0 CDI 0 1 1 185 831 3386 1195 0 VCDI 0 0 0 38 282 10093 12107 720

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