Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-09-08

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-12

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 31 2834 941 779 267 41 0 0
OW 0 393 1021 776 120 44 0 0
VODI 0 79 714 2341 537 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 129 3312 245 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 520 9062 1429 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5398 5855 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 31 3154 2238 1319 450 120 0 0
OW 0 125 386 1090 200 29 0 0
VODI 0 27 52 1360 935 133 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 254 2553 2969 494 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 594 4998 1967 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 6571 4827 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 976 282 142 16 0 0 0
OW 0 6 41 62 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 41 45 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 120 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 173 349 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 4 296 424 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 976 268 188 37 0 0 0
OW 0 6 21 14 35 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 30 21 28 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 42 89 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 171 297 72 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 22 325 402 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1944 4087 173 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 92 304 66 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 215 273 601 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 93 793 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 161 274 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 846 13 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1944 4133 226 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 241 402 158 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 122 553 361 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 398 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 206 148 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 968 13 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 380 3618 635 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 100 153 174 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 21 404 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 101 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 380 3703 702 108 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 78 139 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 29 293 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 101 99 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1616 4631 292 147 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 13 158 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 262 31 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 90 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1616 4635 286 150 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 19 181 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 231 47 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 73 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2718 1076 179 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 12 186 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 213 93 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 616 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 163 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2718 1041 197 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 42 178 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 204 187 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 400 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 157 184 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 989 4647 668 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 989 4647 668 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9621 1677 33 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9621 1677 33 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6944 3321 330 196 2 0 0 0
OW 0 4 14 125 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 164 67 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 218 40 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 44 129 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6944 3319 326 258 20 0 0 0
OW 0 5 17 83 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 92 82 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 75 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 126 99 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11817 1129 42 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11817 1129 42 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2668 2970 66 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 2 34 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 37 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2668 2971 68 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 31 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 21 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5289 3081 197 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5289 3081 197 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19103 1067 27 12 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19103 1067 27 12 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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