Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-09-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92219 6763 723 209 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 48 334 7 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 14 370 288 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 110 1516 307 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 572 1994 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1681 1287 587
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89967 8822 931 203 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 33 368 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 350 243 50 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 244 1086 386 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 904 1707 77 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 2034 1622 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92144 6851 723 275 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 46 276 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 291 176 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 545 205 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 87 1468 2481 350 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1650 1465 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90674 8334 648 325 19 0 0 0
OW 0 0 34 288 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 279 166 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 407 221 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 335 3259 704 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 1597 1694 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90674 8334 638 323 22 0 0 0
OW 0 0 44 270 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 284 178 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 458 297 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 282 3101 649 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 1678 1749 0

Date: 2016-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90024 8734 824 358 18 0 0 0
OW 0 0 43 299 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 255 211 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 390 210 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 299 2543 754 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 2055 1951 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90024 8734 843 388 29 0 0 0
OW 0 0 24 276 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 232 234 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 59 319 250 66 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 343 2291 624 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 2260 2054 0

Date: 2016-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90270 8689 772 361 2 0 0 0
OW 0 4 21 238 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 270 154 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 465 106 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 110 2775 806 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1529 2466 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90270 8687 766 371 20 0 0 0
OW 0 5 26 253 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 192 235 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 82 211 301 64 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 215 1698 945 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 2375 2267 0

Date: 2016-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90279 7943 1542 401 9 0 0 0
OW 0 7 33 231 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 235 180 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 457 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 263 1816 1056 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 1982 2484 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90279 7940 1522 380 33 0 0 0
OW 0 6 49 225 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 5 203 243 27 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 100 249 246 50 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 283 1298 1160 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 91 2292 2330 0

Date: 2016-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86758 10568 2035 671 35 0 0 0
OW 0 0 47 237 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 241 183 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 396 89 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 175 1365 641 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2066 3454 14
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86758 10564 1974 601 59 0 0 0
OW 0 4 94 228 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 14 223 195 54 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 116 199 191 63 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 317 903 820 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 2373 3211 14


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