Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-09-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10575 12484 3847 1940 3 0 0 0
OW 0 205 876 1698 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 110 2459 644 57 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 657 1393 243 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 642 1250 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 79 2721 3789 71
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7567 15422 4025 1447 28 0 0 0
OW 0 602 1077 1504 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 262 2418 528 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 680 1291 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 129 1308 552 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 126 4744 1977 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9157 14652 4472 1652 17 0 0 0
OW 0 355 637 1302 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 164 2318 186 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 466 1511 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 915 1317 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 61 4904 1663 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9228 14902 3930 1324 22 0 0 0
OW 0 746 555 1343 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 277 1946 281 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 468 1219 50 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 90 1007 1375 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 61 4863 2041 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9228 15074 3916 1419 17 0 0 0
OW 0 639 657 1172 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 189 2001 295 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 517 1199 136 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 1031 1345 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 47 4807 2043 0

Date: 2016-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8900 14430 3220 1175 215 0 0 0
OW 0 651 1126 1245 158 0 0 0
VODI 0 128 422 1912 521 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 421 1009 134 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 823 1508 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 66 6269 1405 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8900 14613 3344 1332 279 0 0 0
OW 0 563 1083 919 113 3 0 0
VODI 0 33 342 1909 340 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 597 1081 228 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 893 1557 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 86 6116 1409 0

Date: 2016-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8821 14036 1545 585 231 41 0 0
OW 0 437 1403 790 70 44 0 0
VODI 0 294 1012 2932 277 33 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 229 2167 97 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 418 2396 143 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 4 4867 2993 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8821 14341 2855 1229 330 120 0 0
OW 0 379 860 1069 108 30 0 0
VODI 0 47 233 1827 677 78 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 396 1391 188 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 614 1638 161 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 47 5424 2975 0

Date: 2016-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8913 13282 1613 416 284 24 0 0
OW 0 477 1126 659 85 64 0 0
VODI 0 193 1675 3065 212 108 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 546 1448 198 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 678 1623 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 43 3524 5375 169
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8913 13245 3049 1011 374 131 0 0
OW 0 588 994 1061 86 69 0 0
VODI 0 119 357 1885 242 130 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 695 1281 226 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 698 1451 81 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 69 3534 5347 169

Date: 2016-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9436 12460 1652 441 208 26 0 0
OW 0 670 1216 603 72 55 0 0
VODI 0 228 1989 2841 196 154 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 817 909 176 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 883 909 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 163 5666 3503 545
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9436 12305 3053 965 299 196 0 0
OW 0 812 1171 1046 64 103 0 0
VODI 0 240 599 1567 244 161 0 0
ODI 0 1 34 1035 800 231 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 122 677 1041 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 347 5254 3504 545


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