Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-09-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106059 32269 7462 3286 3 0 0 0
OW 0 213 944 3079 143 1 0 0
VODI 0 1 124 4088 3003 65 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 1235 7802 959 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 90 1367 4592 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 79 4402 5076 658
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101122 37928 7074 2728 28 0 0 0
OW 0 604 1156 2863 278 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 270 3984 2790 169 1 0
ODI 0 0 8 1612 6308 1476 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 148 2376 3391 173 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 142 6778 3599 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105360 35291 7188 2972 21 0 0 0
OW 0 356 685 2256 99 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 164 3653 1183 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 782 7659 835 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 145 2720 5442 489 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 61 6554 3128 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102145 37073 8176 2776 74 0 0 0
OW 0 746 613 2322 163 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 277 3070 1309 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 846 7090 799 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 94 1760 6475 849 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 76 6460 3735 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102145 37245 8141 3015 87 0 0 0
OW 0 639 736 2054 141 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 189 3105 1500 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 867 6924 1009 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 1769 6245 792 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 51 6485 3792 0

Date: 2016-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100962 38194 6900 2219 286 0 0 0
OW 0 652 1251 2185 327 0 0 0
VODI 0 128 423 2925 1546 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 536 4493 2563 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 1667 6876 996 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 75 8349 3356 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100962 38378 7073 2524 399 0 0 0
OW 0 563 1156 1775 224 3 0 0
VODI 0 33 346 2865 1376 41 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 704 4565 3145 153 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 1739 6246 776 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 91 8384 3463 0

Date: 2016-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102262 36756 4762 1563 285 41 0 0
OW 0 600 1560 1581 155 44 0 0
VODI 0 294 1016 4063 818 33 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 326 5251 342 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 935 9977 1543 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 4 6540 6292 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102262 37210 6122 2321 507 120 0 0
OW 0 392 965 1874 279 30 0 0
VODI 0 48 239 2775 1650 158 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 539 3687 3079 494 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 1254 5726 2103 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 71 7864 5242 0

Date: 2016-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103120 34887 5077 1409 328 24 0 0
OW 0 792 1345 1488 242 64 0 0
VODI 0 196 1688 4168 878 113 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 707 3977 536 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 1904 8366 1339 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 46 5957 8215 169
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103120 35097 6553 2098 570 135 0 0
OW 0 652 1172 1818 280 77 0 0
VODI 0 124 371 2905 1226 193 0 0
ODI 0 2 15 899 3502 2950 116 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 1637 5763 1761 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 160 5942 7677 169

Date: 2016-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98484 38602 5326 1640 278 26 0 0
OW 0 915 1496 1604 226 70 0 0
VODI 0 228 2006 3941 929 183 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1082 3185 406 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 2352 6844 827 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 163 8455 7167 559
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98484 38646 6769 2536 503 225 0 0
OW 0 858 1378 1826 295 119 0 0
VODI 0 240 646 2484 1316 296 2 0
ODI 0 1 35 1288 2772 2938 103 0
CDI 0 0 0 172 1898 4627 1175 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 349 7779 6715 559


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