Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-09-01

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-05

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 32 3870 2891 1212 0 0 0 0
OW 0 138 334 1577 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 43 2643 629 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 302 7608 382 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 899 5862 527 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5336 2572 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 32 3814 2225 1119 23 0 0 0
OW 0 169 830 1385 197 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 201 2451 2464 42 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 773 5051 1569 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 1364 3791 513 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 78 6179 2576 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1136 245 231 6 0 0 0
OW 0 2 26 29 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 97 21 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 71 100 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 146 179 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 11 447 344 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1111 243 242 13 0 0 0
OW 0 18 12 16 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 18 53 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 75 52 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 183 159 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 30 468 344 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1545 5114 665 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 242 348 56 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 74 522 27 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 120 153 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 165 150 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 749 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1545 5198 723 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 120 220 58 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 115 258 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 29 308 90 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 86 225 96 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 807 0 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1223 2578 850 284 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 13 182 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 267 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 201 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1223 2574 786 268 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 73 219 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 266 167 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 56 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2012 4135 312 255 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 7 127 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 167 72 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 103 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2012 4102 269 214 6 0 0 0
OW 0 33 46 197 66 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 143 111 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 11 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 73 2484 953 415 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 178 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 101 169 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 483 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 18 396 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 73 2484 903 387 11 0 0 0
OW 0 0 50 234 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 77 443 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 152 241 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 195 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1439 4443 428 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1439 4444 428 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10262 975 94 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10262 975 94 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8268 2140 297 129 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 23 114 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 159 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 200 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 43 191 54 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8268 2140 293 146 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 25 115 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 3 129 83 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 145 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 39 152 54 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2168 3466 108 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 3 15 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 24 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2168 3466 111 25 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 23 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5439 3014 130 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5439 3014 130 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18467 1683 32 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18467 1683 32 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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