Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-09-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4647 16753 2977 646 0 0 0 0
OW 0 61 1229 1619 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 68 3818 398 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 768 3159 52 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 49 999 3106 426 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2578 2511 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5169 16750 3285 706 0 0 0 0
OW 0 155 1579 1361 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 274 3537 469 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 863 2250 159 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 68 475 1991 1784 12
VCDI 0 0 0 3 0 388 4126 437
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3934 17282 6827 1398 2 0 0 0
OW 0 12 259 1620 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 25 2822 419 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 398 2123 120 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 349 1786 132 0
VCDI 0 0 1 0 1 947 3877 1519
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9243 15153 3725 1115 8 0 0 0
OW 0 59 813 1567 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 58 2512 609 60 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 621 1638 148 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 668 1191 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 57 2522 3935 79
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9243 15142 3877 1433 13 0 0 0
OW 0 70 598 1465 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 121 2257 745 56 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 658 1470 159 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 689 1206 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 55 2500 3935 79

Date: 2016-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8635 14263 4494 1297 9 0 0 0
OW 0 351 1004 1638 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 153 2416 618 64 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 563 1477 129 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 91 982 900 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 63 3174 3444 26
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8635 14482 4833 1849 15 0 0 0
OW 0 125 578 1370 82 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 239 2033 710 67 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 659 1312 136 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 95 1014 873 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 61 3191 3440 26

Date: 2016-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9810 14624 3971 1318 9 0 0 0
OW 0 382 697 1347 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 120 2583 236 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 345 1723 78 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 503 1693 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 36 5084 1236 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9810 14656 3468 1210 18 0 0 0
OW 0 278 954 1221 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 80 325 2204 499 11 0 0
ODI 0 1 41 837 966 80 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 154 889 1093 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 96 5672 1235 0

Date: 2016-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9254 14780 4314 1467 15 0 0 0
OW 0 466 615 1302 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 184 2216 141 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 514 1313 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 1229 1142 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 55 4393 2306 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9254 14670 3401 1042 25 0 0 0
OW 0 467 1142 1100 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 132 548 2276 353 5 0 0
ODI 0 2 22 893 761 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 252 1369 649 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 226 4888 2301 0

Date: 2016-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8620 15103 3769 1247 115 0 0 0
OW 0 548 794 1236 176 0 0 0
VODI 0 121 376 1845 519 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 386 1154 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 656 1726 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 69 6180 1060 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8620 14979 3068 844 60 0 0 0
OW 0 678 1142 1041 126 0 0 0
VODI 0 115 670 1854 828 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 59 772 670 91 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 274 918 1216 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 87 6681 1051 0


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