Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-08-25

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-08-29

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2896 2690 808 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 192 1746 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 4158 891 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 453 9024 423 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 481 4251 726 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 143 4159 3836
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1949 1511 480 6 0 0 0
OW 0 806 887 1271 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 149 491 3485 960 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 1879 6036 195 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 3370 4346 1360 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 273 3524 3836

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1175 377 169 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 40 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 80 24 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 72 146 8 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 11 75 184 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 616 146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1171 353 121 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 25 65 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 81 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 80 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 154 190 22 0
VCDI 0 1 0 3 1 0 600 146

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1546 4830 786 174 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 167 275 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 415 82 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 518 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 54 304 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 31 614 33
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1546 4556 484 136 0 0 0 0
OW 0 268 187 83 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 260 447 29 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 28 221 477 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 148 352 329 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 340 33

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 383 3311 677 304 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 47 300 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 445 60 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 95 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 383 3307 546 261 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 171 314 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 441 53 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 65 102 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2000 4189 251 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 21 225 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 330 74 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 120 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2000 4141 166 40 0 0 0 0
OW 0 47 85 115 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 21 425 70 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 124 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 103 1690 785 448 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 75 375 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 429 312 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 533 93 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 34 443 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 103 1646 587 428 13 0 0 0
OW 0 45 257 412 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 16 319 319 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 96 417 161 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 87 372 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2451 3759 101 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2451 3759 101 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8735 2443 112 41 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8735 2443 112 41 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7296 3052 508 121 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 7 145 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 182 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 190 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 25 119 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7296 3052 483 151 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 24 129 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 149 37 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 133 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 64 122 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2630 2966 160 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2630 2966 160 33 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 158 5572 2587 270 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 158 5572 2587 270 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19003 1166 21 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19003 1166 21 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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