Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-08-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89896 36143 10297 2778 44 0 0 0
OW 0 550 1474 2820 242 5 0 0
VODI 0 37 386 5695 1877 28 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 2173 10549 1175 96 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 2519 8063 1159 5
VCDI 0 0 0 4 1 2262 5138 1625
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95161 35000 6843 2278 57 0 0 0
OW 0 554 1602 2953 329 6 0 0
VODI 0 47 424 5144 2248 77 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 2073 10021 1315 98 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 2914 7743 1639 10
VCDI 0 0 0 5 39 3303 4599 524
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93439 37768 8078 2583 0 0 0 0
OW 0 29 1076 3368 93 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 74 6062 1673 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1001 11557 365 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 2 2651 8470 516 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2066 5228 944
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95004 38077 7495 1647 2 0 0 0
OW 0 131 1589 3544 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 81 6220 1200 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1954 9614 257 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 47 4285 7286 263 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 2938 4792 550
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95004 37854 7705 2241 0 0 0 0
OW 0 338 1262 2758 66 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 198 6132 1447 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2231 9225 273 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 48 4427 7130 295 2
VCDI 0 0 0 2 0 3076 4760 550

Date: 2016-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98773 31998 9492 2321 10 0 0 0
OW 0 149 1879 3729 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 103 6092 1256 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1943 8776 295 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 68 3899 7306 624 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 0 3767 4457 34
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98773 31954 9626 2850 11 0 0 0
OW 0 173 1498 2949 77 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 349 6092 1461 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 2173 8308 336 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 88 4143 7158 472 0
VCDI 0 1 0 2 2 3870 4609 34

Date: 2016-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99153 37049 9055 2437 0 0 0 0
OW 0 27 510 3118 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 15 6046 1462 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 635 10626 556 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 12 669 5301 788 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 175 5389 4015
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99153 35728 7111 1999 19 0 0 0
OW 0 1177 1636 2400 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 171 803 5350 1478 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 30 2353 7369 371 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 143 3823 5382 1712 2
VCDI 0 1 0 3 1 273 4464 4015

Date: 2016-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101765 37683 7647 2352 4 0 0 0
OW 0 20 431 3011 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 26 4805 2485 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 925 8974 719 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 1108 4466 477 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 6 2342 5537 2178
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101765 36235 5238 1696 33 0 0 0
OW 0 1240 1720 2297 123 0 0 0
VODI 0 228 1076 4529 2122 18 1 0
ODI 0 0 70 2346 6735 331 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 236 3565 5229 718 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 52 1955 5295 2178

Date: 2016-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106059 32269 7462 3286 3 0 0 0
OW 0 213 944 3079 143 1 0 0
VODI 0 1 124 4088 3003 65 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 1235 7802 959 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 90 1367 4592 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 79 4402 5076 658
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106059 30829 5994 2342 84 0 0 0
OW 0 1215 1419 2618 252 3 0 0
VODI 0 439 994 4238 2246 95 2 0
ODI 0 0 124 2233 6257 565 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 331 3386 4985 52 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 172 4371 5059 658


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