Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-08-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89376 9183 897 706 15 0 0 0
OW 0 3 29 467 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 255 474 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 579 479 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 149 2171 3405 105
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 94 481 102
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85638 12477 1075 1066 22 0 0 0
OW 0 5 46 387 93 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 204 574 40 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 561 514 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 346 2162 2877 151
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 76 572 175
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83193 12805 3364 979 17 0 0 0
OW 0 0 2 307 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 337 221 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 71 1044 156 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 444 2481 523 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 314 2000 788
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81061 15379 2987 986 22 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 318 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 320 326 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 79 831 256 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 463 2407 737 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 36 1518 1293
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81061 15378 2987 1047 16 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 270 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 296 359 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 90 786 310 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 491 2333 689 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 49 1563 1292

Date: 2016-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90496 8451 971 533 10 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 351 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 342 347 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 76 721 363 32 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 652 2301 933 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 135 1871 469
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90496 8451 968 530 10 0 0 0
OW 0 0 3 340 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 367 340 43 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 65 752 309 88 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 646 2274 751 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 173 1997 469

Date: 2016-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88154 9780 1237 1186 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 6 318 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 478 171 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 1411 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 320 2766 637 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 243 1541 736
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88154 9780 1208 1164 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 35 363 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 402 355 47 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 96 669 475 17 6
CDI 0 0 0 0 862 2013 849 22
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 537 1312 712

Date: 2016-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88523 7427 3730 568 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 18 331 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 390 104 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 216 1165 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 908 2314 494 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 290 1618 922
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88523 7427 3697 497 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 49 367 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 444 318 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 196 551 382 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1275 1491 477 25
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 793 1635 905

Date: 2016-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90869 8024 944 216 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 74 302 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 393 57 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 329 1089 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 1333 2140 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1580 1566 40
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90869 8024 933 220 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 91 336 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 471 284 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 138 650 200 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 82 1352 1582 73 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 187 1990 1563 40


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