Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-08-11

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-08-15

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1051 747 347 7 0 0 0
OW 0 13 445 794 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 3563 691 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 303 9964 553 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 919 9618 563 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 622 6213 453
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 954 696 518 31 0 0 0
OW 0 110 323 703 143 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 178 2607 1173 59 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1173 6346 955 92 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 3918 9535 4582 287
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 245 2102 166

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 631 394 143 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 4 154 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 500 41 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 147 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 129 361 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 547 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 542 343 123 0 0 0 0
OW 0 59 49 209 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 6 418 25 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 80 144 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 146 365 388 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 0 1 169 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 755 3397 1151 479 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 117 340 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 487 37 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 73 1416 79 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 96 723 176 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 37 613 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 755 3385 1147 556 6 0 0 0
OW 0 11 94 341 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 27 397 130 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 85 1154 197 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 265 639 530 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 252 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 25 1905 1359 349 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 123 372 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 923 129 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 61 401 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 25 1905 1392 523 19 0 0 0
OW 0 0 73 421 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 666 243 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 95 240 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 4083 941 64 0 0 0 0
OW 0 38 186 346 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 515 122 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 815 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 31 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 4092 878 66 0 0 0 0
OW 0 29 228 322 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 21 446 124 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 119 677 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 155 66 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1320 540 136 4 0 0 0
OW 0 1 119 517 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 747 242 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 1181 66 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 417 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1298 408 146 12 0 0 0
OW 0 23 224 394 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 27 648 398 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 213 930 141 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 105 342 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 697 5280 328 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 697 5276 328 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8434 2732 148 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8434 2732 148 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6977 3320 443 281 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 11 209 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 149 52 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 117 31 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 64 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6977 3314 427 370 5 0 0 0
OW 0 7 27 151 22 0 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 121 117 28 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 33 67 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8440 3216 877 452 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8440 3216 877 452 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2778 2888 59 48 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 10 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2778 2888 59 55 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 5 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3559 3933 918 177 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3559 3912 915 176 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 3 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18311 1849 32 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18311 1849 32 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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