Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-08-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89169 7693 2117 915 37 0 0 0
OW 0 9 33 430 127 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 573 450 43 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 626 959 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 29 4419 1400 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88434 9902 981 574 53 0 0 0
OW 0 7 79 460 113 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 493 643 143 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 432 1019 86 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 4413 1033 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 24 182 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81774 15406 2045 902 20 0 0 0
OW 0 2 38 436 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 436 192 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 50 884 194 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 228 4690 825 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 336 593 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84891 13280 1395 569 15 0 0 0
OW 0 4 31 467 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 260 411 37 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 605 445 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 180 2485 3207 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 22 614 68
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84891 13281 1399 661 14 0 0 0
OW 0 3 24 385 33 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 217 401 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 627 334 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 204 2616 3059 17
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 20 777 70

Date: 2016-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88980 9668 888 667 20 1 0 0
OW 0 2 43 424 78 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 206 566 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 481 575 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 232 2182 3116 242
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 105 461 84
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88980 9665 896 739 18 0 0 0
OW 0 5 32 339 52 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 198 457 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 636 436 24 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 214 2320 3009 176
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 115 583 150

Date: 2016-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85197 12405 1711 916 10 0 0 0
OW 0 1 11 369 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 292 154 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 65 1273 92 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 221 3047 244 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 161 2871 32
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85197 12399 1686 1068 21 0 0 0
OW 0 7 36 307 76 0 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 213 479 28 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 613 512 44 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 489 2732 2314 32
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 28 756 0

Date: 2016-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83642 14449 1525 766 14 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 332 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 380 229 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 935 167 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 336 2671 552 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 437 1747 775
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83642 14447 1512 861 30 0 0 0
OW 0 2 14 341 76 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 290 422 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 80 466 639 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 553 2604 1856 552
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 431 233

Date: 2016-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86762 10880 1996 804 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 332 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 350 323 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 92 720 318 58 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 586 2001 953 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 38 1706 1122
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86762 10875 1973 859 17 0 0 0
OW 0 5 21 354 91 2 1 0
VODI 0 0 3 267 438 69 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 70 331 627 199 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 808 1661 2511 401
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 721


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