Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-08-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1043 11739 5528 1773 50 0 0 0
OW 0 36 727 1220 32 1 0 0
VODI 0 2 137 2919 779 57 5 0
ODI 0 1 0 847 4565 814 145 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1020 9339 3055 0
VCDI 0 1 3 1 0 7 20 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3327 12398 3456 1356 22 0 0 0
OW 0 130 792 1303 110 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 135 2467 1131 69 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 1146 3895 861 4 0
CDI 0 2 0 8 969 9112 3130 0
VCDI 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1401 12857 5079 2634 9 0 0 0
OW 0 6 266 1156 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 34 3121 793 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 395 5012 440 0 0
CDI 0 3 2 0 748 6409 2993 259
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 101 2055 51
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7431 11275 2721 832 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 291 1222 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 74 3267 713 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 443 4589 431 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 960 4291 4523 900
VCDI 0 0 0 1 0 22 1581 236
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7431 11284 2749 1017 1 0 0 0
OW 0 4 300 1019 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 38 3089 712 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 639 4524 453 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 1002 4264 4414 944
VCDI 0 0 0 1 0 27 1690 192

Date: 2016-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8693 10437 2356 948 0 0 0 0
OW 0 45 320 1392 95 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 61 2887 1132 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 576 4038 467 81 0
CDI 0 1 1 10 874 3919 4094 1544
VCDI 0 0 1 0 0 129 1581 141
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8693 10446 2436 1162 28 0 0 0
OW 0 35 264 1100 108 1 0 0
VODI 0 22 37 2819 1098 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 720 3964 525 73 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 941 3892 4070 1587
VCDI 0 1 2 2 0 101 1613 98

Date: 2016-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5830 11560 4068 1247 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 467 1230 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 4166 373 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 382 5121 231 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 468 4842 430 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 507 4491 421
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5830 11428 4024 1513 26 0 0 0
OW 0 101 347 1241 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 168 3098 585 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1167 3881 307 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 1433 5051 3147 255
VCDI 0 0 0 3 0 218 1767 166

Date: 2016-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3383 15022 3702 738 0 0 0 0
OW 0 145 830 1099 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 216 3727 467 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 977 4388 156 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 18 912 3783 492 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1211 3768 733
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3383 14882 3665 972 5 0 0 0
OW 0 254 668 889 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 119 408 2795 589 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 1844 3265 179 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 1859 4758 2052 233
VCDI 0 0 1 0 0 209 2208 501

Date: 2016-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1045 14990 5630 1296 2 0 0 0
OW 0 271 1005 1142 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 270 3561 432 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1280 3963 136 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 960 3652 29 5
VCDI 0 0 0 4 1 2224 3432 503
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1045 14873 5704 1535 2 0 0 0
OW 0 297 725 756 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 114 443 3043 549 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 33 1885 2991 164 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 65 1765 5106 973 74
VCDI 0 0 0 3 9 742 2488 434


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