Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-08-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79651 17097 2133 921 26 0 0 0
OW 0 13 5 503 88 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 438 633 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 681 593 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 70 6136 93 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77897 18404 2722 756 24 0 0 0
OW 0 16 18 532 135 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 497 602 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 722 662 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 152 5776 159 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87858 10048 1253 714 21 1 0 0
OW 0 0 15 423 83 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 514 348 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 964 575 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 173 4670 1367 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89392 8808 1042 670 24 0 0 0
OW 0 9 42 434 103 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 594 397 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 761 908 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 39 4622 1193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89392 8811 1047 657 25 0 0 0
OW 0 6 35 427 61 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 601 363 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 837 649 72 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 38 4851 1143 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 36 0 0

Date: 2016-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86864 10730 1678 638 45 0 0 0
OW 0 9 75 412 120 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 543 559 61 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 629 886 69 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 40 5125 582 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86864 10733 1688 627 40 0 0 0
OW 0 6 62 443 64 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 512 513 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 692 647 132 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 84 5341 519 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 38 0 0

Date: 2016-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86923 11434 1138 576 31 0 0 0
OW 0 1 10 452 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 455 197 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 993 141 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 111 5471 165 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 436 499 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86923 11425 1036 566 47 0 0 0
OW 0 10 90 459 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 22 443 667 69 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 42 554 847 177 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 48 4764 449 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 369 38 0

Date: 2016-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81550 15842 2107 629 17 0 0 0
OW 0 4 38 448 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 331 300 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 740 353 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 244 3368 2189 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 98 744 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81550 15832 2047 575 54 0 0 0
OW 0 12 96 455 118 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 4 369 673 189 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 384 1406 297 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 130 2177 2284 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 67 352 0

Date: 2016-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89376 9183 897 706 15 0 0 0
OW 0 3 29 467 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 255 474 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 579 479 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 149 2171 3405 105
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 94 481 102
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89376 9176 863 645 77 0 0 0
OW 0 10 62 455 158 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 323 645 331 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 394 1470 394 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 888 3181 194
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 83 336 13


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