Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-08-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1862 11219 3674 1743 77 0 0 0
OW 0 29 156 1502 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 75 2634 614 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 790 5760 663 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 2352 11031 579 0
VCDI 0 0 2 3 0 798 248 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 554 9937 5438 2812 60 0 0 0
OW 0 46 169 1801 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 169 2167 1008 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 877 5110 1158 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 2032 11149 1118 0
VCDI 0 1 1 3 57 90 0 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 443 9516 6868 2679 42 0 0 0
OW 0 14 282 1438 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 55 3141 608 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 675 5689 679 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1415 10803 1267 0
VCDI 0 5 0 0 11 3 196 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1054 11211 5762 1837 49 0 0 0
OW 0 35 565 1248 80 2 0 0
VODI 0 1 98 2807 897 63 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 760 4739 1095 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1167 10065 2216 0
VCDI 0 1 3 1 6 36 41 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1054 11186 5782 2009 67 0 0 0
OW 0 60 554 1205 100 2 0 0
VODI 0 1 89 2591 939 70 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 847 4619 987 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1204 10165 2196 0
VCDI 0 1 3 1 9 37 56 0

Date: 2016-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 538 13749 4996 1036 28 0 0 0
OW 0 44 785 1291 47 1 0 0
VODI 0 1 125 2662 1002 58 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1029 4212 859 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 9 1053 10538 1744 0
VCDI 0 1 2 0 0 34 20 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 538 13657 5086 1225 31 0 0 0
OW 0 133 695 1227 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 125 2474 1051 94 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1092 3952 794 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 9 1240 10521 1690 0
VCDI 0 1 2 0 0 81 74 0

Date: 2016-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1643 14967 4216 704 16 0 0 0
OW 0 21 423 1098 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 36 3380 487 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 422 5161 382 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 0 354 7653 2508 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 0 133 2235 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1643 14750 3687 1013 26 0 0 0
OW 0 190 800 1082 191 3 0 0
VODI 0 48 186 2311 1001 86 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 1181 3644 771 7 0
CDI 0 3 1 17 1168 7262 4723 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 0 56 13 0

Date: 2016-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3435 12931 3999 1771 3 0 0 0
OW 0 7 284 1143 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 47 3182 810 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 491 4645 525 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 3 830 4991 4590 177
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 67 1848 23
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3435 12724 3575 1812 64 0 0 0
OW 0 213 574 1264 232 24 0 0
VODI 0 2 176 2427 886 113 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 1076 3707 818 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 9 1436 4621 6438 200
VCDI 0 1 0 2 13 16 0 0

Date: 2016-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6820 12294 2359 887 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 287 1380 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 67 3183 772 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 581 4189 495 40 0
CDI 0 2 0 9 862 3798 4201 1677
VCDI 0 1 0 0 0 103 1555 208
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6820 12147 1940 1152 75 0 0 0
OW 0 132 545 1420 239 6 0 0
VODI 0 46 198 2296 874 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 32 1148 3630 601 54 2
CDI 0 1 0 24 1052 3752 5670 1883
VCDI 0 2 0 0 0 0 72 0


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