Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-07-28

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-08-01

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 935 368 381 25 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 209 78 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 997 450 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 76 8033 952 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 879 21278 1199 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 50 992 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 935 366 404 88 0 0 0
OW 0 0 2 218 146 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 888 1362 255 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 152 6153 4992 807 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1716 17026 1382 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 464 105 81 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 11 95 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 385 154 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 116 667 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 249 696 17 0
VCDI 0 3 2 0 19 2 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 450 93 73 3 0 0 0
OW 0 18 20 109 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 6 295 393 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 175 370 112 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 240 627 17 0
VCDI 0 3 2 0 42 3 0 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1616 1577 545 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 223 767 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 30 1488 118 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 106 1414 82 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 353 1139 361 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 163 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1594 1424 919 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 218 720 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 174 895 133 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 354 817 115 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 935 1106 524 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 76 958 1402 696 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 17 315 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 908 99 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 113 970 66 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 27 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 76 958 1374 923 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 36 366 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 12 501 410 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 242 587 91 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 56 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2544 439 214 0 0 0 0
OW 0 26 243 367 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 806 273 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 1339 144 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 82 758 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2476 520 500 5 0 0 0
OW 0 91 122 383 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 42 473 728 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 807 605 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 92 295 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 257 568 171 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 85 487 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 728 187 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 42 1261 169 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 78 958 276 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 263 553 329 2 0 0 0
OW 0 10 97 450 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 4 543 690 549 205 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 752 473 103 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 51 105 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 316 3113 2214 462 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 125 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 69 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 316 3113 2214 498 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 96 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 62 21 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8630 2403 174 123 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8630 2403 174 123 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7039 2956 311 144 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 213 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 310 173 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 413 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 74 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7039 2956 288 127 29 0 0 0
OW 0 0 23 256 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 293 358 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 165 103 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 995 3975 363 380 3 0 0 0
OW 0 2 3 59 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 995 3971 363 332 14 0 0 0
OW 0 6 3 110 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 246 5257 2322 571 26 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 102 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 42 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 246 5227 2318 589 30 0 0 0
OW 0 22 2 63 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 3 64 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17308 2304 318 186 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 67 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 11 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17308 2302 310 204 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 8 60 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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