Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-07-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 342 9471 3362 3280 216 6 0 0
OW 0 17 226 1356 136 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 99 2079 1116 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 824 4370 1909 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 2947 11338 1728 0
VCDI 0 0 1 4 3 685 328 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 426 11087 3474 2006 138 0 0 0
OW 0 24 290 1351 222 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 50 1986 1423 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 744 4411 1544 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 2505 11153 1603 0
VCDI 0 0 2 3 33 957 371 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 218 9982 4685 2805 139 0 0 0
OW 0 5 120 1259 86 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 14 2537 764 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 316 6034 889 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1476 10453 1407 0
VCDI 0 0 1 4 1 1371 1297 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2458 9985 4174 1702 54 0 0 0
OW 0 34 160 1388 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 51 2708 527 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 723 5634 743 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 2453 10387 673 0
VCDI 0 0 2 3 0 1363 549 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2458 9981 4159 1993 87 0 0 0
OW 0 32 173 1193 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 53 2624 677 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 714 5414 835 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 2500 10188 732 0
VCDI 0 0 2 3 0 1465 490 0

Date: 2016-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1474 11219 3986 1905 77 0 0 0
OW 0 39 205 1597 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 140 2412 791 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 830 5320 1023 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 2101 11365 884 0
VCDI 0 2 1 2 19 321 49 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1474 11210 4022 2181 86 0 0 0
OW 0 43 181 1532 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 127 2308 1007 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 720 5081 1133 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 2115 11431 893 0
VCDI 0 2 1 2 33 143 40 0

Date: 2016-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 800 10433 5596 2300 29 0 0 0
OW 0 7 255 1381 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 36 3291 511 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 384 6522 519 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 991 11647 745 0
VCDI 0 3 2 0 19 2 360 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 800 10367 5399 2919 51 0 0 0
OW 0 64 279 1407 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 195 2132 1241 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 855 4680 1067 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 2008 11085 1105 0
VCDI 0 3 2 0 42 3 0 0

Date: 2016-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1190 10924 5964 1620 22 0 0 0
OW 0 26 459 1346 8 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 107 2973 737 44 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 653 5049 1023 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1330 10901 1332 0
VCDI 0 2 2 1 18 112 18 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1190 10803 5838 2115 29 0 0 0
OW 0 109 481 1041 146 2 0 0
VODI 0 38 203 2322 1077 128 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 1002 3943 1252 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 113 1938 10657 1347 0
VCDI 0 2 2 1 31 43 0 0

Date: 2016-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1043 11739 5528 1773 50 0 0 0
OW 0 36 727 1220 32 1 0 0
VODI 0 2 137 2919 779 57 5 0
ODI 0 1 0 847 4565 814 145 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1020 9339 3055 0
VCDI 0 1 3 1 0 7 20 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1043 11568 5420 2387 79 0 0 0
OW 0 179 635 689 195 13 0 0
VODI 0 30 336 2455 906 197 9 0
ODI 0 1 1 1155 3665 699 135 0
CDI 0 0 0 73 1568 9141 2884 0
VCDI 0 1 3 1 33 168 197 0


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