Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-07-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71231 39262 9259 4845 249 6 0 0
OW 0 27 724 3152 337 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 179 4288 3469 328 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1084 8993 6063 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 3934 25746 2828 0
VCDI 0 0 1 4 3 685 328 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73369 40873 7120 4205 173 0 0 0
OW 0 98 1041 3176 627 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 275 3824 4072 1104 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 1093 8688 6175 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 4691 22361 2640 0
VCDI 0 0 2 3 33 957 371 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78167 35536 9818 4677 159 0 0 0
OW 0 5 176 2843 289 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 4504 2274 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 454 13022 3743 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 3012 22261 3385 0
VCDI 0 0 1 4 1 1372 1297 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83697 32094 9646 3585 100 0 0 0
OW 0 36 268 3167 365 3 0 0
VODI 0 4 60 4584 2455 129 13 0
ODI 0 0 0 826 12029 5639 448 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 3642 20270 2062 0
VCDI 0 0 2 3 0 1363 549 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83697 32090 9618 4121 177 0 0 0
OW 0 34 277 2792 326 22 0 0
VODI 0 10 79 4342 2482 261 48 0
ODI 0 0 0 910 11531 4902 577 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 4075 20706 1954 0
VCDI 0 0 2 3 0 1513 493 0

Date: 2016-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80134 36183 8791 4278 131 0 0 0
OW 0 59 309 3623 408 2 0 0
VODI 0 6 159 4306 3274 440 68 0
ODI 0 0 7 1025 11245 6849 727 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 2789 20509 1298 0
VCDI 0 2 1 2 19 321 49 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80134 36160 8799 4956 188 0 0 0
OW 0 79 283 3153 356 20 0 0
VODI 0 9 176 4069 3220 561 115 0
ODI 0 0 8 1051 10766 6230 679 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 3303 21167 1308 0
VCDI 0 2 1 2 33 143 40 0

Date: 2016-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89458 26782 10161 3954 55 0 0 0
OW 0 50 583 2806 127 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 39 5747 1499 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 478 14114 1489 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 1647 24930 1853 0
VCDI 0 3 2 0 19 52 1187 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89458 26648 9997 5021 177 0 0 0
OW 0 171 531 2831 383 7 0 0
VODI 0 14 241 4014 4117 819 207 0
ODI 0 0 14 1068 9652 6491 910 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 3090 19159 1923 0
VCDI 0 3 2 0 42 3 0 0

Date: 2016-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92478 27910 8337 2880 46 0 0 0
OW 0 89 861 2793 189 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 111 5309 2211 87 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 755 11070 4255 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1870 21531 4017 0
VCDI 0 2 2 1 18 141 65 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92478 27665 8157 3716 155 3 0 0
OW 0 293 854 2307 539 44 7 0
VODI 0 41 290 4419 4065 1513 547 0
ODI 0 0 8 1183 7849 6739 1040 0
CDI 0 0 0 113 2765 17674 2505 0
VCDI 0 2 2 1 31 43 0 0

Date: 2016-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91062 28265 10138 3014 100 0 0 0
OW 0 157 1237 2675 232 1 0 0
VODI 0 11 163 5408 2601 100 5 0
ODI 0 1 0 973 9805 4934 197 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1370 19228 5339 0
VCDI 0 1 3 1 0 7 20 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91062 27756 10008 4018 322 1 0 0
OW 0 558 1028 2013 706 109 26 0
VODI 0 119 501 4700 4008 2319 379 0
ODI 0 1 1 1266 6936 6603 801 0
CDI 0 0 0 73 2103 15070 4158 0
VCDI 0 1 3 1 33 168 197 0


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