Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-07-21

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-07-25

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1185 381 360 15 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 215 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 365 347 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 71 6125 943 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1761 21559 1514 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1039 959 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1185 368 348 103 0 0 0
OW 0 0 13 231 94 62 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 297 1017 599 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 115 4236 3983 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 2861 17750 1789 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1147 684 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 380 105 74 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 9 45 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 148 103 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 83 824 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 341 622 320 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 8 8 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 376 99 81 4 0 0 0
OW 0 5 8 39 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 93 244 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 126 543 72 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 428 569 320 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 41 36 0 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 969 935 668 25 0 0 0
OW 0 0 140 497 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 1736 164 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 159 1462 115 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 407 2120 235 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 63 268 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 965 817 760 30 0 0 0
OW 0 4 201 485 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 61 1312 382 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 464 809 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 824 2214 346 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 157 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 57 2051 666 242 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 26 380 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 499 89 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 1278 128 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 152 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 57 2045 609 511 38 0 0 0
OW 0 6 77 289 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 6 318 704 45 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 59 579 235 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 23 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1039 1242 202 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 115 546 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 742 288 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 45 1855 167 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 66 920 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 902 611 131 36 0 0 0
OW 0 129 495 303 109 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 251 864 556 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 240 1142 215 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 377 872 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 134 251 187 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 5 423 17 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 940 250 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 1927 240 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 210 698 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 132 169 292 13 0 0 0
OW 0 2 81 612 163 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 574 1204 423 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 106 867 412 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 158 97 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 662 4478 612 338 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 101 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 24 58 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 32 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 662 4478 612 384 14 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 52 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 28 49 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 6 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4324 5085 1831 91 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4324 5085 1831 91 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6035 3929 343 125 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 156 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 247 180 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 519 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 92 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6035 3906 308 96 6 0 0 0
OW 0 21 34 238 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 195 407 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 248 105 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9326 3401 261 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9326 3401 261 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4 4118 885 435 33 0 0 0
OW 0 1 2 161 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 113 42 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4 4115 875 425 35 0 0 0
OW 0 3 7 168 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 5 113 38 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 5046 1777 1193 120 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 138 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 113 126 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 12 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 5046 1777 1256 168 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 123 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 68 72 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11621 6946 1191 227 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 72 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 70 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 42 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11621 6946 1191 260 9 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 72 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 37 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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