Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-07-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 6060 5908 3011 243 16 0 0
OW 0 41 104 1579 96 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 12 1618 863 8 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 676 3165 438 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 327 4007 9119 1174 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 73 7143 164 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 270 7660 4837 2748 244 0 0 0
OW 0 29 124 1521 123 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 60 1497 1037 17 0 0
ODI 0 3 4 720 3338 303 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 949 4450 9610 1791 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 92 3657 763 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135 7922 5459 2563 234 0 0 0
OW 0 8 56 1271 94 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 38 2229 769 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 956 5350 1198 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 2597 12226 838 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 32 963 905 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 832 9114 3863 2359 299 0 0 0
OW 0 8 126 1389 123 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 61 2167 1082 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 834 5106 1313 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 2749 13053 151 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 18 1200 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 832 9115 3870 2667 321 0 0 0
OW 0 7 96 1194 191 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 84 2003 1108 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 885 4865 1237 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 2878 12619 151 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 14 1695 0 0

Date: 2016-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 712 10524 3750 1756 181 0 0 0
OW 0 24 245 1421 135 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 105 1998 1215 54 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 730 3469 2687 32 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 2508 11829 1397 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 21 1030 10 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 712 10536 3717 1997 201 0 0 0
OW 0 13 261 1184 160 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 122 1958 1278 208 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 760 3308 2395 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 2548 11526 1375 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 34 1471 36 0

Date: 2016-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61 10873 3822 2498 180 0 0 0
OW 0 12 177 1180 79 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 9 2758 545 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 352 6306 703 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 1280 11391 1335 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 8 1105 1184 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61 10847 3627 2923 277 0 0 0
OW 0 27 297 1087 172 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 82 1985 1750 73 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 723 4109 1246 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 72 2049 10689 1678 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 41 1191 841 0

Date: 2016-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1624 8904 5501 2008 72 0 0 0
OW 0 5 151 1355 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 2568 729 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 382 5881 855 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1568 10342 1420 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 0 1173 1227 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1624 8894 5215 2317 139 0 0 0
OW 0 10 320 1259 104 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 133 1879 1906 161 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 734 3771 1305 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 125 2373 9276 1540 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 21 1641 1107 0

Date: 2016-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1862 11219 3674 1743 77 0 0 0
OW 0 29 156 1502 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 75 2634 614 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 790 5760 663 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 2352 11031 579 0
VCDI 0 0 2 3 0 798 248 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1862 11176 3307 2164 100 0 0 0
OW 0 64 374 1221 152 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 184 2169 1768 93 0 0
ODI 0 0 37 943 3638 924 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 200 3160 10319 366 0
VCDI 0 0 2 3 8 1156 461 0


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