Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-07-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68735 30504 16401 5345 317 18 0 0
OW 0 78 310 2953 276 27 0 0
VODI 0 24 76 3485 3035 131 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 1216 6906 2255 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 327 5490 25141 3222 0
VCDI 0 1 0 4 161 9310 1274 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71442 35791 10838 4021 297 0 0 0
OW 0 58 320 3051 362 18 0 0
VODI 0 15 134 3350 3584 83 0 0
ODI 0 3 4 1035 7598 2126 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 949 6391 26745 3028 0
VCDI 0 1 0 5 172 4796 831 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71893 32196 15043 4531 260 0 0 0
OW 0 22 297 2599 199 4 0 0
VODI 0 3 60 4726 2486 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1064 10063 3777 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 11 4009 30246 1617 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 32 964 905 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74315 37616 8294 3892 336 0 0 0
OW 0 14 525 3089 299 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 91 4463 3116 229 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1036 9443 5590 2 0
CDI 0 1 0 13 3842 29239 375 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 18 1200 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74315 37621 8344 4409 395 1 0 0
OW 0 9 453 2848 430 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 113 4132 3149 425 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1090 8949 4723 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 14 4117 29384 377 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 14 1725 0 0

Date: 2016-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69364 42807 8946 3920 259 0 0 0
OW 0 68 742 3297 447 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 174 4136 3667 814 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 1004 8092 6974 46 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 3734 24722 2737 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 21 1030 10 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69364 42845 9019 4461 372 0 0 0
OW 0 31 647 2829 509 18 0 0
VODI 0 5 196 4073 3503 1226 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 987 7832 5646 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 3970 25179 2726 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 34 1471 36 0

Date: 2016-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73760 38890 10480 4142 198 0 0 0
OW 0 16 297 2734 190 1 0 0
VODI 0 1 9 4997 1683 5 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 473 14082 1692 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 2807 26165 2069 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 8 1110 1227 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73760 38711 9528 4635 456 0 0 0
OW 0 170 916 2612 645 74 0 0
VODI 0 26 340 3899 4707 1096 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 1131 8448 5090 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 75 4671 21522 2455 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 41 1191 841 0

Date: 2016-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82453 31630 10531 4090 96 0 0 0
OW 0 6 229 3022 311 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 25 4599 2355 71 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 509 12286 5214 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 2912 20656 3647 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 0 1173 1227 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82453 31352 9560 4181 398 52 0 0
OW 0 253 847 2894 644 234 0 0
VODI 0 31 376 3818 4756 1966 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 1201 7666 5601 461 0
CDI 0 0 0 127 4475 17620 3306 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 21 1641 1107 0

Date: 2016-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81705 35548 8333 3587 135 0 0 0
OW 0 45 284 3369 341 11 0 0
VODI 0 6 88 4347 3002 315 2 0
ODI 0 0 2 900 11890 6085 699 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 3235 21024 1016 0
VCDI 0 0 2 3 0 798 248 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81705 34969 7617 4186 468 182 5 0
OW 0 559 585 2840 831 432 62 0
VODI 0 71 438 3711 5054 1735 485 0
ODI 0 0 62 1293 7467 5938 529 0
CDI 0 0 5 201 4775 18790 423 0
VCDI 0 0 2 3 8 1156 461 0


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