Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-07-14

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-07-18

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 957 617 311 11 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 224 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 139 250 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 119 4202 774 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 2115 24179 1026 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1220 714 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 948 558 299 28 0 0 0
OW 0 9 59 275 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 97 478 136 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 2169 1313 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 122 3858 20638 1629 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 4088 111 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 283 69 62 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 11 73 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 2 110 58 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 724 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 310 865 151 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 23 114 230 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 270 61 60 0 0 0 0
OW 0 14 10 55 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 7 80 188 5 0 0
ODI 0 1 4 51 487 85 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 328 775 375 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 110 140 6 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 436 1133 937 29 0 0 0
OW 0 0 41 359 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 17 1281 224 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 794 1299 40 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 807 1706 187 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 658 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 436 1070 972 40 0 0 0
OW 0 0 60 354 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 39 493 204 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 22 651 755 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 903 1332 1688 828 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 56 17 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1668 439 299 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 7 442 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 782 93 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 1346 71 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 99 345 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1668 440 496 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 6 560 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 472 457 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 829 84 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 234 332 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 107 436 74 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 171 407 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1299 242 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 2038 207 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 0 150 2059 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 106 354 175 1 0 0 0
OW 0 19 123 362 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 126 919 670 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 355 1549 449 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 0 167 1817 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 33 106 68 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 13 120 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 795 428 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 1386 305 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 302 1723 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 7 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 27 82 91 3 0 0 0
OW 0 7 34 193 66 5 0 0
VODI 0 1 4 622 523 45 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 81 718 641 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 768 1330 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 63 21 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 27 3603 1931 131 14 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 131 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 162 108 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 143 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 53 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 27 3603 1931 130 9 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 139 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 143 117 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 105 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 57 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1898 6218 3146 69 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1898 6218 3146 69 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4794 4370 957 206 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 172 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 222 184 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 525 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 172 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4794 4370 936 258 5 0 0 0
OW 0 0 19 203 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 140 364 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 267 139 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 16 59 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11219 1753 16 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11219 1753 16 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2339 2243 579 66 0 0 0
OW 0 0 4 140 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 104 138 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 139 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2333 2240 544 75 0 0 0
OW 0 6 4 170 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 91 152 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 117 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 8 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 681 5341 1033 739 144 0 0 0
OW 0 4 6 151 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 137 108 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 42 146 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 681 5331 1001 749 141 0 0 0
OW 0 7 32 104 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 7 146 99 5 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 69 124 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 10 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11517 7205 983 210 5 0 0 0
OW 0 3 0 52 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 18 57 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 96 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 25 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11517 7205 983 226 13 0 0 0
OW 0 3 0 49 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 5 93 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 52 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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